On the Industrial Policy of Russia for 2018-2030

Denis V. Manturov – Ph.D. in Economics, Minister of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation. Kitaygorodsky Pr, 7, Moscow, 109074, Russia. E-mail: manturov@minprom.gov.ru.
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DOI 10.24833/2071-8160-2018-4-61-7-22 (Read the article in PDF)

The article deals with the development of industrial policy in the Russian Federation in the coming years. The subject matter is the key challenges for the industrial development of Russia on the time horizon of 2018-2030, the risks and conditions for the Russian industrial policy and for its possible strategic alternatives. The research methodology is based on structuring the factors that shape the state industrial policy and bringing them into line with the existing or prospective elements of the policy. For the prospective industrial policy, I consider the emerging approaches in state authorities and the expert community. The main results include the following. The global risks of strengthening sanctions are the most important factors to consider during the implementation of industrial policy in Russia. Among the possible strategic policy alternatives, it is expedient to implement an intermediate variant between «the basis of economic development and the key source of budget revenues» and «the means of diversifying the risks of the Russian economy». It involves concentration of resources on building long-term global competitive positions. Achieving this aim in terms of export volume requires constant high growth rates of industrial production – at least 4.2% per year. The industrial policy should be concentrated on several key directions (technological policy, investment, foreign trade, etc.) with a general exportoriented approach. For each of the directions, updating of both strategic planning documents and a set of industrial policy instruments will be required in the next 1-2 years. With the 3-5 years duration period of most investment projects in industrial sector, the roadmap for implementing a new model of industrial policy should be updated by the end of 2018. This timeframe limits or forbids the development and use of tools that require substantial changes in legal regulation.

Key words: industrial policy, export, import substitution, strategic planning

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