<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mgimoreview</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник МГИМО-Университета</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>MGIMO Review of International Relations</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2071-8160</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2541-9099</issn><publisher><publisher-name>MGIMO Universty Press</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.24833/2071-8160-2025-4-103-137-163</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mgimoreview-4028</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКИЕ СТАТЬИ. Международная политическая экономия</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RESEARCH ARTICLES. International Political Economy</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Новый облик мировой энергетики</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>The Emerging Global Energy Landscape</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0006-0204-5888</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Сечин</surname><given-names>И. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Sechin</surname><given-names>I. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Игорь Иванович Сечин – кандидат экономических наук, главный исполнительный директор</p><p>Россия, 117997, Москва, Софийская наб., 26/1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Igor I. Sechin – PhD in Economics, Chief Executive Officer, Rosneft Oil Company,</p><p>117997, Moscow, 26/1 Sofiyskaya Naberezhnaya</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">postman@rosneft.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>ПАО «НК “Роснефть”»</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Rosneft Oil Company</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>11</day><month>09</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>18</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>137</fpage><lpage>163</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Сечин И.И., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Сечин И.И.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Sechin I.I.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/4028">https://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/4028</self-uri><abstract><p>В статье исследуется влияние ключевых макроэкономических, технологических, демографических и политических факторов на формирование нового облика мировой энергетики. На основе системного анализа статистических данных МЭА, Всемирного банка, ОЭСР и ведущих аналитических центров выявлено, что к 2050 г. совокупный рост населения Африки и стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона на 1,4 млрд чел. и ускоренная урбанизация обеспечат до 60% прироста глобального потребления электроэнергии. Технологическая революция, связанная с ИИ и центрами обработки данных, уже к 2030 г. приведёт к увеличению их энергопотребления свыше 1000 ТВт·ч в год, сопоставимо с современным уровнем Японии. Показано, что зелёный переход сталкивается с ограничениями: для достижения целей «углеродной нейтральности» к 2050 г. потребуются инвестиции порядка 180 трлн долл., при этом плотность энергетического потока ВИЭ значительно уступает традиционным источникам. Анализ атомной отрасли выявил рост инвестиций на 50% за последние пять лет, лидерство Китая и России в строительстве новых реакторов и развитии технологий замкнутого топливного цикла. Установлено, что уголь сохраняет около 25% в мировом энергобалансе, а пик его потребления откладывается, что отражает важность баланса традиционных и альтернативных источников. Рассмотрены стратегические подходы Китая, Индии, США и России к обеспечению энергетической безопасности, включая модернизацию сетей, развитие аккумуляторных технологий, синтетического топлива и угольной генерации. Сделан вывод о том, что эффективная глобальная энергетическая модель будущего требует интеграции высокоплотных традиционных и низкоуглеродных источников энергии, усиления межтопливной конкуренции и согласования национальных стратегий с глобальными приоритетами.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The article examines the impact of key macroeconomic, technological, demographic, and political factors on shaping the future global energy landscape. Based on a systems analysis of data from the IEA, World Bank, OECD, and leading think tanks, it is shown that by 2050 the combined population growth of Africa and the Asia–Pacific region by 1.4 billion and accelerated urbanization will account for up to 60% of the global increase in electricity consumption. The technological revolution, driven by AI and data centers, will raise their annual electricity demand beyond 1,000 TWh by 2030, comparable to Japan’s current level. The study demonstrates that the “green” transition faces constraints: achieving net zero by 2050 would require about USD 180 trillion in investments, while the power density of renewables remains far lower than that of conventional sources. Analysis of the nuclear sector reveals a 50% investment increase over the past five years, with China and Russia leading in new reactor construction and closed fuel cycle technologies. Coal retains around 25% of the global energy mix, with its consumption peak postponed, underlining the importance of balancing traditional and alternative sources. Strategic approaches of China, India, the US, and Russia to energy security are reviewed, including grid modernization, battery technology development, synthetic fuels, and coal power expansion. The paper concludes that an effective future global energy model requires integration of high-density traditional and low-carbon energy sources, enhancement of inter-fuel competition, and alignment of national strategies with global priorities.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>глобальная энергетика</kwd><kwd>энергетическая безопасность</kwd><kwd>энергетический переход</kwd><kwd>возобновляемые источники энергии</kwd><kwd>ископаемое топливо</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>global energy sector</kwd><kwd>energy security</kwd><kwd>energy transition</kwd><kwd>renewable energy</kwd><kwd>fossil fuels</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ferguson N. 2025. Ferguson’s Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Ferguson N. 2025. Ferguson’s Law: Debt Service, Military Spending, and the Fiscal Limits of</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit2"><label>2</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Power. The Hoover Institution History Working Paper. February P. 7–29.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Power. The Hoover Institution History Working Paper. February P. 7–29.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit3"><label>3</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Lindzen R., Happer W. 2024. Physics Proves Net Zero Carbon Dioxide Will Prevent Very Little Warming but Cause Great Harm.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Lindzen R., Happer W. 2024. Physics Proves Net Zero Carbon Dioxide Will Prevent Very Little Warming but Cause Great Harm.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit4"><label>4</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Sethuraman N.R. 2025. India Eases Coal Supply Rules to Ramp up Power Generation Capacity.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Sethuraman N.R. 2025. India Eases Coal Supply Rules to Ramp up Power Generation Capacity.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit5"><label>5</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Smil V. 2015. Power Density: A Key to Understanding Energy Sources and Uses. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Smil V. 2015. Power Density: A Key to Understanding Energy Sources and Uses. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit6"><label>6</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Smil V. 2017. Energy and Society. 2nd ed. Energy and Civilization: A History. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press. P. 1–20.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Smil V. 2017. Energy and Society. 2nd ed. Energy and Civilization: A History. Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press. P. 1–20.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit7"><label>7</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Wang W., Shen Y., Chen Q., Wang F., Yu Y. 2025. Spatiotemporal Mass Change Rate Analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and Four Glacier Basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land. Sci. China Earth Sci. Vol. 68. P. 1086–1099.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Wang W., Shen Y., Chen Q., Wang F., Yu Y. 2025. Spatiotemporal Mass Change Rate Analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and Four Glacier Basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land. Sci. China Earth Sci. Vol. 68. P. 1086–1099.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit8"><label>8</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Wijngaarden W.A., Happer W. 2025. Radiation Transport in Clouds. Science of Climate Change. 5(1). P. 1–12.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Wijngaarden W.A., Happer W. 2025. Radiation Transport in Clouds. Science of Climate Change. 5(1). P. 1–12.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref><ref id="cit9"><label>9</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Zalk J.V., Behrens P. 2018. The Spatial Extent of Renewable and Non-Renewable Power Generation: A Review and Meta-Analysis of Power Densities and Their Application in the U.S. Energy Policy. №123. December 2018. P. 83–91.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Zalk J.V., Behrens P. 2018. The Spatial Extent of Renewable and Non-Renewable Power Generation: A Review and Meta-Analysis of Power Densities and Their Application in the U.S. Energy Policy. №123. December 2018. P. 83–91.</mixed-citation></citation-alternatives></ref></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
