mgimoreviewВестник МГИМО-УниверситетаMGIMO Review of International Relations2071-81602541-9099MGIMO Universty Press10.24833/2071-8160-2017-5-56-7-32mgimoreview-668Research ArticleПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ НАСЛЕДИЕ РУССКОЙ РЕВОЛЮЦИИTHE LEGACY OF THE RUSSIAN REVOLUTIONСТОЛЕТИЕ СМЕШАННОГО НЕРАВНОМЕРНОГО РАЗВИТИЯ: ЭРОЗИЯ ГЕГЕМОНИИ США И ВОЗВЫШЕНИЕ КИТАЯA CENTURY OF UNEVEN AND COMBINED DEVELOPMENT: THE EROSION OF UNITED STATES HEGEMONY AND THE RISE OF CHINAДанфордМайклDunfordMichael

Майкл Данфорд– профессор в отставке, Школа глобальных исследований Университета Сассекса; старший научный сотрудник Института географических исследований и изучения природных ресурсов Китайской академии наук 

100101, Пекин, округ Чаоянг, улица Датун, 11А

Michael Dunford– Emeritus Professor, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex; CAS Senior International Scientist, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,

11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101, China

M.F.Dunford@sussex.ac.ukВэйдунЛюWeidongLiu

Вэйдун Лю– профессор экономической географии, заместитель заведующего отдела демографической географии и регионального развития 

100101, Пекин, округ Чаоянг, улица Датун, 11А

Weidong Liu– Professor in Economic Geography, Assistant Director of the Department of Human GInstitute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Scienceseography and Regional Development 

11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100101

liuwd@igsnrr.ac.cnУниверситет Сассекса; Институт географических исследований и изучения природных ресурсов Китайской академии наукВеликобританияUniversity of Sussex; Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesUnited KingdomИнститут географических исследований и изучения природных ресурсов Китайской академии наукКитайInstitute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesChina20170511201705(56)732Copyright © Данфорд М., Вэйдун Л., 20172017Данфорд М., Вэйдун Л.Dunford M., Weidong L.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/668

Концепция смешанного неравномерного развития, в рамках которой взаимосвязи и взаимодействия разных обществ формируются и сочетаются со своими внутренними структурами, используется для изучения движущих сил текущей стадии глобального развития за 100 лет с 1917 года. Это понятие было придумано левым теоретиком и одним из лидеров ВКП(б) Львом Троцким с целью объяснить особенности развития имперской России. В настоящее время оно применяется для рассмотрения различных случаев политического и экономического развития на глобальном уровне. Концепция смешанного неравномерного развития позволяет учитывать как внутригосударственные, так и внегосударственные факторы, включая эволюцию политических режимов, динамику международной торговли.

В статье большое внимание уделяется движущим факторам мирного экономического спада в США и западном мире –  как этот спад был смягчен волной производственной и финансовой глобализации, которая сама по себе способствовала  росту ряда развивающихся экономик с экономическим, политическим и культурным потенциалом, а также подтолкнула их использовать полученные преимущества для продвижения полицентричного и многоцивилизационного мира и, возможно, более инклюзивной модели развития. Одной из таких стран является Китай, власти которого нашли способ совместить протекционизм в отношении внутреннего рынка с активным продвижением экспорта, заимствованием технологий и сохранением текущей модели управления. Автор приходит к выводу, что ключевым фактором успеха КНР на этом направлении была постепенность политического развития, сохранение государственной состоятельности (state capacity) и сдержанное отношение к господствовавшим неолиберальным подходам к формулированию экономического курса.

Таким образом, в статье рассматривается политическая экономия глобальных сдвигов власти и их долгосрочные перспективы. Существующие тенденции глобальных рынков, по мнению автора, благоприятны для КНР. 

The concept of uneven and combined development where the interconnectedness and interactions of different societies shape and combine with their internal structures to drive the evolution of comparative development and power is used to examine the drivers of successive phase of global development in the 100 years since 1917. This concept was coined by left-wing theorist and the Soviet Communist party leader Leo Trotsky with the aim of explaining peculiarities of imperialRussia’s development. Currently it is applied for different cases of political and economic development on the global level. The concept of uneven and combined development allows taking into account both intra-state and extra-state factors, including political regimes evolution, international trade dynamics.   

Most attention is paid to the drivers of secular economic decline in the United States and the Western world, the way it was tempered by a wave of productive and financial globalization that itself permitted the rise of a number of emerging economies with the economic, political and cultural capacity to exploit latecomer advantage and the way the rise of new powers is leading in the direction of a polycentric multi-civilizational world and a possibly more inclusive model of development. To put it simply, the article addresses political economy of global power shifts and their prospects.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.