mgimoreviewВестник МГИМО-УниверситетаMGIMO Review of International Relations2071-81602541-9099MGIMO Universty Press10.24833/2071-8160-2017-5-56-199-208mgimoreview-679Research ArticleБЛИЖНИЙ ВОСТОКMIDDLE EASTЧТО ДВИЖЕТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯМИ В НЕФТЯНЫХ МОНАРХИЯХ ПЕРСИДСКОГО ЗАЛИВА?WHAT DRIVES THE CHANGES IN THE GULF OIL MONARCHIES?КюрчискиН.KjurchiskiN.

Никола Кюрчиски – аспирант, научный сотрудник Центра сырьевой экономики

119571, г. Москва, проспект Вернадского, 82, стр.1

Nikola Kjurchiski– PhD student in Political Science at the Gentre for Resource Economics.

119571, Prospect Vernadskogo 82/5, Moscow

kjurchiskin@gmail.comРоссийская академия народного хозяйства и государственной службы при Президенте Российской ФедерацииРоссияRussian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)Russian Federation20170511201705(56)199208Copyright © Кюрчиски Н., 20172017Кюрчиски Н.Kjurchiski N.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.vestnik.mgimo.ru/jour/article/view/679

В статье определены четыре основных события, вызывающие изменения в нефтяных монархиях Персидского залива. Расположенные в неспокойном и нестабильном регионе Ближнего Востока, в условиях снижения цен на нефть, после событий «арабской весны» и избрания Дональда Трампа президентом США, нефтяные монархии залива испытывают давление изнутри и снаружи для создания изменений. Как следствие, ставится под сомнение обоснованность теории “монархической исключительности”. Политические элиты, управляющие монархиями, признают импульс для ухода от статуса-кво, хотя и явление «дилемма короля» по-прежнему присутствует в авторитарном мире. Эта статья доказывает, что в монархиях должна быть консервативная либерализация. В процессе консервативной либерализации должен быть использован эволюционный подход, предполагающий постепенные шаги в направлении реформ, так как у общества будет достаточно времени, чтобы адаптироваться к новым условиям. Наряду с постепенной либерализацией, необходим процесс институционального развития для создания более сильных и независимых институтов.

The article identifies four main events driving the current changes in thePersian Gulfoil monarchies. Located in a troubled and unstable region of the Middle East with the oil prices declining after the events of the “Arab spring” and election of Donald Trump as president of theUnited States, Gulf oil monarchies are under pressure from inside and outside to undergo significant changes. As a consequence, validity of the theory of «monarchical exclusiveness» is called into question. The political elites in the monarchies recognize the need to depart from the status quo, although the phenomenon of the «king’s dilemma» is still present there. The author argues that the monarchy should undergo conservative liberalization. To avoid political destabilization they should apply a gradual, evolutionary approach to liberalization providing their societies with enough time to adapt to new developments. Along with the gradual liberalisation process there is also need in institutional development to make institutions stronger and more independent.

монархии Персидского заливамонархическая исключительностиизмененияконсервативная либерализацияmonarchies of the Persian Gulfmonarchical exclusivenesschangesconservative liberalizationReferencesAl Munajjed M., Sabbagh K. Youth in GCC countries: meeting the challenge / Insight Ideation Center. Booz & Company Inc., 2011. 77 р.Al Munajjed M., Sabbagh K. Youth in GCC countries: meeting the challenge. Insight Ideation Center. Booz & Company Inc., 2011. 77 р.Alvarez M. Cheibub J.A., Limongi F., Przeworski A. Classifying Political Regimes // Studies in Comparative International Development. 1996. Vol. 31. No. 2. Pp. 3-36.Alvarez M., Cheibub J.A., Limongi F., Przeworski A. Classifying Political Regimes. Studies in Comparative International Development, 1996, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 3-36.Anderson L. Absolutism and the Resilience of Monarchy in the Middle East // Political Science Quarterly. 1991. Vol. 106. No. 1. Pр. 1-15.Anderson L. Absolutism and the Resilience of Monarchy in the Middle East. Political Science Quarterly, 1991, vol. 106, no 1, рр. 1-15.Anderson L. Middle East Monarchies: The Challenge of Modernity / ed. by J. Kostiner. Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers. 2000. 241 p.Anderson L. Middle East Monarchies: the Challenge of Modernity. Ed. by J. Kostiner. Boulder, Lynne Rienner Publ., 2000. 241 p.Barari H.A. The Persistence of Autocracy: Jordan, Morocco and the Gulf // Middle East Critique. 2015. Vol. 24. No. 1. Pр. 99-111.Barari H.A. The Persistence of Autocracy: Jordan, Morocco and the Gulf. Middle East Critique, 2015, vol. 24, no. 1, рр. 99-111.Beinin J. Palestine, Israel and the Arab-Israeli Conflict: a Primer. Middle East Research and Information Project. 2014. URL: http://lokayat.org.in/books/palestine.pdf (дата обращения: 01.04.2017).Beinin J. A Primer on Palestine, Israel and the Arab-Israeli Conflict. Middle East Research and Information Project, 2014. Available at: http://lokayat.org.in/books/palestine.pdf (Accessed: 01.04.2017).Bona M. Asian Values and Gulf Monarchical Exceptionalism // Springer: East Asia. 2015. Vol. 32. No. 3. Pp. 273-287.Bona M. Asian Values and Gulf Monarchical Exceptionalism. Springer: East Asia, 2015, vol. 32, no 3, pp. 273-287.Cordesman A.H. Stability and Instability in the Gulf Region in 2016: A Strategic Net Assessment. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). 2016. URL: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160615_Gulf_Stability_Instability.pdf (дата обращения: 01.04.2017).Cordesman A.H. Stability and Instability in the Gulf Region in 2016: A Strategic Net Assessment. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 2016. Available at: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/160615_Gulf_Stability_Instability.pdf (accessed: 01.04.2017).Diamond L.J. Thinking About Hybrid Regimes // Journal of Democracy. 2002. Vol. 13. No. 2. Pp. 21-35.Diamond L.J. Thinking About Hybrid Regimes. Journal of Democracy, 2002, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 21-35.Finer S.E. Comparative Government. London: Penguin Press, 1970. 640 р.Finer S.E. Comparative Government. London, Penguin Press Publ., 1970. 640 р.Huntington S.P. Political Order in Changing Societies. London: Yale University Press. 263 p.Huntington S.P. Political Order in Changing Societies. London, Yale University Press Publ. 263 p.Kjurchiski N. Elections as Contemporary Mechanism for Legitimation of the Gulf Oil Monarchies in the Post Arab Spring Era // Communicology Journal. 2016. Vol. 4. No. 5. Pр. 33-39.Kjurchiski N. Elections as Contemporary Mechanism for Legitimation of the Gulf Oil Monarchies in the Post Arab Spring Era. Communicology Journal, 2016, vol. 4, no. 5, рр. 33-39.Lucas R.E. Monarchical Authoritarianism: Survival and Political Liberalization in a Middle Eastern Regime Type // International Journal of Middle East Studies. 2004. Vol. 36. No. 1. Pр. 103-119.Lucas R.E. Monarchical Authoritarianism: Survival and Political Liberalization in a Middle Eastern Regime Type. International Journal of Middle East Studies, 2004, vol. 36, no 1. рр. 103-119.Martini J., Wasser B., Kaye D.D., Egel D., Ogletree C. The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation. Santa-Monica: RAND Corporation, 2016. 82 p.Martini J., Wasser B., Kaye D.D., Egel D., Ogletree C. The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation. Santa-Monica, RAND Corporation Publ., 2016. 82 p.Menaldo V. The Middle East and North Africa's Resilient Monarchs // The Journal of Politics. 2012. Vol. 74. No. 03. Pр. 707-722.Menaldo V. The Middle East and North Africa’s Resilient Monarchs. The Journal of Politics, 2012, vol. 74, no. 03, рр. 707-722.Richman S.L. "Ancient History": U.S. Conduct in the Middle East Since World War II and the Folly of Intervention. Cato Policy Analysis. No. 159, CATO Institute. 1991. URL:https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa159.pdf (accessed: 01.04.2017).Richman S.L. “Ancient History”: U.S. Conduct in the Middle East Since World War II and the Folly of Intervention. Cato Policy Analysis, 1991, no. 159. CATO Institute. Available at:https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa159.pdf (accessed: 1/04/2017)Spinks T. The Status of Democracy and Human Rightsvin the Middle East: Does Regime Type Make a Difference? // Democratization. 2008. Vol. 15. No. 2. Pр. 321-341.Spinks T. The Status of Democracy and Human Rights in the Middle East: Does Regime Type Make a Difference? Democratization, 2008, vol. 15, no 2, рр. 321-341.Yom S.L. Resilient Royals: How Arab Monarchies Hang on // Journal of Democracy. 2012. Vol. 23. No. 4. Pр. 74-88.Yom S.L. Resilient Royals: How Arab Monarchies Hang on. Journal of Democracy, 2012, vol. 23, no. 4, рр. 74-88.Yom S.L. The Survival of the Arab Monarchies. November 2012. URL: http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/11/12/the-survival-of-the-arab-monarchies/ (дата обращения: 01.04.201Yom S.L. The Survival of the Arab Monarchies. November 2012. Available at:http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/11/12/the-survival-of-the-arab-monarchies (accessed: 01.04.2017.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.