Turning the East toward Russia: The China Factor

This article reconsiders Russia’s “Pivot to the East” by reframing it through a broader research question: how might an “Eastward turn toward Russia” be initiated. The analytical framework builds on the intellectual legacy of Academician A.V. Torkunov and focuses on the institutional and ideational conditions underpinning Russian policy in the Asia-Pacific. The study identifies four groups of factors shaping the prospects of this strategy: (1) the dynamics of regional stability and instability; (2) the distribution of friendly, neutral, and unfriendly states across the region; (3) the economic trajectory of the Asia-Pacific, largely conditioned by the state of U.S.–China relations and China’s domestic priorities; and (4) the ideational and normative frameworks that reveal the limits of anti-Americanism and multipolarity as universal strategic foundations. Particular attention is devoted to the “China factor,” analyzed through a quarter-by-quarter assessment of the period 2022–2025, which highlights Beijing’s gradual shift from benevolent neutrality to a more pragmatic and cautious stance. The article examines China’s attempts to position itself as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict, the constraints of the “no-limits partnership,” and the lessons Beijing draws from Ukraine for its Taiwan policy. The economic dimension of Sino-Russian relations is characterized less by a strategic reorientation than by adaptation and substitution under sanctions pressure. The analysis concludes that, despite Russia’s continuing strategic value for China, the widening “fields of divergence” create new risks for aligning long-term interests. The sustainability of an “Eastward turn toward Russia” depends on gradual institutionalization of cooperation, integration into regional processes, and the avoidance of excessive ideological framing of foreign policy.

1. Торкунов А., Стрельцов Д. Российская политика поворота на Восток: проблемы и риски. Мировая экономика и международные отношения, 2023, т. 67, № 4, сс. 5-16. https:// doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2023-67-4-5-16 EDN: QBQAWC