The Afghan Crisis and the Transformation of Regional Security Architecture in Central Asia (2021–2025)
https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2026-2-107-188-204
Abstract
This article examines the Afghan crisis after the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021 and its impact on regional security in Central Asia. Afghanistan is closely linked to the Central Asian states geographically, historically, ethnically, politically, and economically; therefore, instability in Afghanistan directly affects the security environment of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The Taliban takeover created new risks related to terrorism, religious extremism, drug trafficking, organized crime, illegal migration, and the potential spillover of violence across Afghanistan’s northern borders.
The study uses a qualitative case-study approach and focuses on the period from 2021 to 2025. It draws on scholarly literature, analytical reports, and policy studies produced by international organizations, regional security bodies, and research institutes. The article first provides a historical overview of the Afghan crisis, tracing its roots from the political upheavals of the 1970s and the Soviet intervention to the rise of the Taliban and the post-2021 security situation. It then analyzes the main channels through which the Afghan crisis affects Central Asia.
Special attention is paid to terrorist and extremist groups operating in Afghanistan, including ISIS-K, Al-Qaeda-linked networks, and regional militant organizations, as well as to narcotics production and trafficking along the Northern Route. The article argues that the Afghan crisis has intensified existing vulnerabilities in Central Asia, including weak border management, socio-economic pressures, ethnic tensions, and limited coordination among regional security institutions.
The article concludes that Central Asian states cannot address these threats separately. A more resilient regional security architecture requires intelligence-sharing, counterterrorism coordination, stronger border control, pragmatic diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan, and joint counter-radicalization programs.
About the Authors
K. Abuov
Institute of Diplomacy, the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kairat Abuov – PhD Candidate, Institute of Diplomacy of the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
33a Abay Ave, Astana, Kazakhstan, 010000
M. Kabaziyev
Board of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Manarbek Kabaziyev – Deputy Chairman of The Board of the Foreign Policy Research Institute under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan
A. Moldagulova street, 32/1, Astana, Kazakhstan, 010000
K. Sheryazdanova
Institute of Diplomacy of the Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan
Kamilla Sheryazdanova – Professor
33a Abay Ave, Astana, Kazakhstan, 010000
References
1. Abbasian Р. 2022. My Enemy’s Enemy: Iran’s Approach to the Re-emergence of the Taliban. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. 9(3). P. 493–512. DOI: 10.1177/23477970221130144
2. Akimbekov S. 2017. History of Afghanistan. Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. P. 222–263.
3. Akram S. 2021. Abandoning Afghan Allies: The Latest Chapter in Shameful History of U.S. in Afghanistan. Just Security.
4. Barfield T. 2012. Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History. Princeton University Press.
5. Chen I. 2023. Cross-border Threats, Reputational Costs and the Evolution of an Authoritarian Club: The Case of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. 10(2). P. 223–248. DOI: 10.1177/23477970231173537
6. Dauren A. 2019. Regional Security in Central Asia: Addressing Existing and potential Threats and Challenges. Eurasian Research Journal. №1. P. 51–65.
7. Debata M.R. 2011. Hizb ut-Tahrir: The Destabilizing Force in Central Asia. Religion and Security in South and Central Asia.
8. Debata M.R. 2017. Xinjiang in Central Asia's Regional Security Structure. International Studies. 14(4). P. 1–13.
9. Debata M. 2022. Tablighi Jamaat: The Fountainhead of Global Extremism. Indian Studies Review. 3(1). P. 1–18.
10. Kokoshin A.A. et al. 2022. The Afghan Crisis: A Global and Regional Problem for the World
11. Community. Polis. Political Studies. №2. P. 83–98. DOI: 10.17976/jpps/2022.02.07
12. MacEachin D.J. 2001. Predicting the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan: The Intelligence Community’s Record. Washington D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency.
13. Murtazashvili J.B. 2022. The Collapse of Afghanistan. Journal of Democracy. 33(1). P. 40–54.
14. Parenti C. 2001. America’s Jihad: A History of Origins. Law, Order, and Neoliberalism. №3. P. 31–38.
15. Rossi G. 2025. Reliance on Local Contractors and Messy Withdrawals: Lessons from Afghanistan. Journal of Strategic Security. №2. P. 261–277. DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.18.2.2440
16. Sakhi N. 2022. The Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan and Security Paradox. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. 9(3). P. 383–401. DOI: 10.1177/23477970221130882
17. Schmidt J.D. 2014. The Asia-Pacific Strategic Triangle: Unentangling the India, China, US Relations on Conflict and Security in South Asia. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. №2. P. 203–222. DOI: 10.1177/2347797014536641
18. Schroden J. 2025. Terrorism and Counterterrorism in the Taliban’s Afghanistan. Journal of Strategic Security. 18(2). P. 1–15. DOI: 10.5038/1944-0472.18.2.2416
19. Shahrani N. 2008. War, Factionalism, and the State in Afghanistan. American Anthropologist. 104(3). P. 715–722. DOI: 10.1525/aa.2002.104.3.715
20. Snider J. 2022. Taliban 2.0 and U.S. National Security Policy in Afghanistan. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. 9(3). P. 402–423. DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129905
21. Somzhurek B.Y. 2018. Central Asia and Regional Security. Communist and Post-Communist
22. Studies. 51(2). P. 161–171. DOI: 10.1016/j.postcomstud.2018.04.005
23. Stepanova E. 2022. Russia, Central Asia and Non-traditional Security Threats from Afghanistan following the US Withdrawal. Global Policy. 13(1). P. 138–145. DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13058
24. Sullivan C. J. 2022. Afghanistan in Anarchy: America’s Withdrawal, Taliban Rule and Regional Implications for Central Asia. Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs. №9. P. 513–530. DOI: 10.1177/23477970221129908
25. Verma R. 2022. Instability in Afghanistan and Non-Traditional Security Threats: A Public Good Problem? Global Policy. 13(1). P. 152–159. DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13044
26. Malysheva D. 2017. The Afghan Crisis and post-Soviet Central Asia. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnyye otnosheniya. №8. P. 14–23. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2017-61-8-14-23
Review
For citations:
Abuov K., Kabaziyev M., Sheryazdanova K. The Afghan Crisis and the Transformation of Regional Security Architecture in Central Asia (2021–2025). MGIMO Review of International Relations. 2026;19(2):188-204. https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2026-2-107-188-204
Views:
541
JATS XML
Email this article 