PROSPECTS FOR THE SECOND WAVE OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOVIC CRISIS
https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2013-4-31-38-42
Abstract
Procedure of an economic and political situation current through the situation at the world oil market
forecasting is offered in the article. The compact mathematical model of cycling market fluctuations is the basis of the
technique. The model allows splitting changes in market conditions caused by the economic and political reasons.
This makes it possible to present the dynamics of the situation as the sum of two components, which are economically
and politically induced. The model provides a forecast of the market economic components. These components
forecast are made on the basis of world energy, economic and political situation scenarios. Retrospective analysis
of relationship of economic conditions and political processes and how market conditions affect the economic and
political situation in the world in the past helps scenarios development. The results of techniques using for time and
characters of next world crisis are presented in the article.
forecasting is offered in the article. The compact mathematical model of cycling market fluctuations is the basis of the
technique. The model allows splitting changes in market conditions caused by the economic and political reasons.
This makes it possible to present the dynamics of the situation as the sum of two components, which are economically
and politically induced. The model provides a forecast of the market economic components. These components
forecast are made on the basis of world energy, economic and political situation scenarios. Retrospective analysis
of relationship of economic conditions and political processes and how market conditions affect the economic and
political situation in the world in the past helps scenarios development. The results of techniques using for time and
characters of next world crisis are presented in the article.
About the Author
V. F. Artyushkin
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), 76, Prospect Vernadskogo, Moscow, 119454, Russia.
Russian Federation
Senior fellow, Center for Global Problems of the Institute for International Studies
Russian Federation
Senior fellow, Center for Global Problems of the Institute for International Studies
References
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2. Полис, № 5, 2007.
3. Артюшкин В. Ф. Прогнозирование энергетической политики. Обозреватель – Observer. 2010.№12(251).
4. Артюшкин В.Ф., Полякова Т.В. Влияние мировых цен на углеводороды на экономику и политику стран
5. СНГ. Аналитическая записка. ЦГП ИМИ МГИМО МИД России. 2012. Декабрь.
Review
For citations:
Artyushkin V.F. PROSPECTS FOR THE SECOND WAVE OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND ECONOVIC CRISIS. MGIMO Review of International Relations. 2013;(4(31)):38-42. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2013-4-31-38-42
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