China–US Rivalry and Security Dynamics in the Persian Gulf

Abstract

China’s growing strategic and economic interests, coupled with its need for stable energy supplies, have deepened engagement with the Gulf states. This emerging relationship extends beyond trade to include investment, infrastructure initiatives, and political partnerships, forming a complex architecture of interdependence. At the same time, the weakening of the United States’ position has begun to alter the regional balance of power. Despite their long-standing security reliance on Washington, Gulf monarchies increasingly seek to avoid binary choices between the United States and China, pursuing greater autonomy in their foreign policies. This article examines how the evolving U.S.–China rivalry shapes international relations and security in the Persian Gulf. It first assesses the transformation of U.S. strategic thinking on competition with China and analyzes the principles of Beijing’s foreign policy that underpin its rising influence in the subregion. The study then explores how Saudi–Iranian tensions affect China’s regional strategy and, in turn, Washington–Beijing relations. Special attention is given to the United Arab Emirates’ strategy of balancing its ties with both powers while consolidating its role as a regional leader. The analysis demonstrates that China is consolidating its position in the Gulf through deliberate policy choices as well as broader geopolitical trends reflecting the emergence of multipolarity. While Gulf states seek to preserve independence by diversifying external partnerships, they remain dependent on the United States in defense and security. The article concludes that the Gulf has become a key arena of great-power competition, where Beijing’s growing presence and Washington’s enduring security role interact to reshape the regional order.