Foreign Policy Risks to the Connectivity of Russia's Electric Power System
https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2025-6-105-124-153
Abstract
This article analyzes the foreign-policy risks arising from the cross-border interconnectedness (inter-system integration) of Russia’s electric power system and the country’s institutional and technological adaptation to these risks. The analysis applies a contemporary conception of energy security as “low vulnerability of vital energy systems,” operationalized through the questions “security for whom, of which values, and from what threats.” Methodologically, the study integrates a multidisciplinary framework with conceptual analysis, qualitative case studies, and elements of network modeling (community detection, betweenness centrality). Empirically, it examines three connectivity vectors: the European (BRELL desynchronization and the islanding of the Kaliningrad subsystem), the Eurasian (Central Asian transformations, the emerging EAEU common electricity market, and North–South projects), and the Eastern (exports to China, technology cooperation, and prospective Caspian and Middle Eastern corridors), alongside cross-cutting risks such as sanctions, cyber threats, and warfare/sabotage. The findings highlight the dual nature of interconnection: while scale and mutual support enhance technical resilience, interties simultaneously create channels of political coercion and cascading failures. Vulnerabilities are differentiated across referent objects (state, regions, sectoral segments) and values (supply reliability, economic efficiency, geopolitical influence). Russia’s adaptation portfolio includes strengthening the autonomy of critical nodes (islanding, redundancy), institutionalizing connectivity within “friendly” formats (EAEU; south- and east-bound interconnections), diversifying partners and reducing import dependence in key technologies, and reinforcing cyber and physical protection of critical infrastructure. The theoretical contribution lies in refining the vulnerability framework for a large multi-node system; the practical contribution is in substantiating a balance between integration and insulation as a principle of connectivity-risk management under geopolitical turbulence.
About the Author
A. A. Sizov
JSC «Leningrad Regional Electric Grid Company»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Andrey A. Sizov – Candidate of Technical Sciences, General Director
187342, Leningrad Region, Kirovsky District, Kirovsk, Ladozhskaya St., 3a
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For citations:
Sizov A.A. Foreign Policy Risks to the Connectivity of Russia's Electric Power System. MGIMO Review of International Relations. 2025;18(6):124-153. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2025-6-105-124-153
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