The Role of the Arctic Region in the Transformation of Russia’s Natural Gas Trade and Pricing Mechanisms
https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2026-1-106-26-52
Abstract
This article analyzes the prospects for establishing an Arctic gas trading hub as the foundation of a new, sovereign system for the export and pricing of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). The study is conducted against the backdrop of two interrelated processes: the structural transformation of global gas markets and the intensification of sanctions pressure on Russia’s energy sector.
The global gas trading system has evolved from rigid long-term oil-indexed contracts toward a more flexible architecture characterized by spot transactions, short-term contracts, financial derivatives, and hub-based competitive “gas-to-gas” pricing. Gas hubs have emerged as key institutional nodes linking physical and futures markets and generating price benchmarks that increasingly determine international trade flows. In this context, Russia’s traditional export model—heavily reliant on long-term contracts and external pricing benchmarks—has become less adaptive to market volatility and more vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions.
The article argues that the Russian Arctic, particularly the Murmansk area, possesses the logistical, infrastructural, and institutional preconditions necessary for the formation of a benchmark-oriented gas hub. The concentration of Arctic LNG production, the development of transshipment infrastructure, the availability of an ice-free deep-water port, and integration with the Northern Sea Route create the potential to accumulate significant primary liquidity. A Murmansk-based hub operating on an FOB basis could facilitate spot trading, enhance price flexibility, and reduce dependence on Western trading platforms. The introduction of a deliverable LNG futures contract—on SPIMEX or within a future BRICS Unified Energy Exchange—is proposed as a mechanism to integrate spot and derivatives markets and establish a regional price benchmark.
The study concludes that the creation of an Arctic gas hub would strengthen the resilience, transparency, and competitiveness of Russian LNG exports, contribute to greater pricing sovereignty, and support the long-term development of Arctic mineral resource centers under conditions of global market restructuring and geopolitical fragmentation.
About the Authors
V. I. Salygin
MGIMO-University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Valery I. Salygin – Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of science (technical sciences), Professor, Director of the International Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy
N. A. Flegontov
MGIMO-University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Nikita A. Flegontov – PhD student at N.P. Laverov Department of International Problems of the Fuel and Energy Complex, International Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy
76 Vernadsky Avenue, Moscow, 119454
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For citations:
Salygin V.I., Flegontov N.A. The Role of the Arctic Region in the Transformation of Russia’s Natural Gas Trade and Pricing Mechanisms. MGIMO Review of International Relations. 2026;19(1):26-52. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.24833/2071-8160-2026-1-106-26-52
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