The International North–South Transport Corridor and Russia’s Trade Reorientation toward the Global South

This article examines the role of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) in the reorientation of Russia’s foreign trade flows toward the countries of the Global South. In the context of sanctions pressure, geopolitical fragmentation, and the restructuring of traditional logistics chains, the INSTC has acquired strategic importance as an alternative transport artery linking Russia with the Caspian region, Iran, India, Central Asia, and wider Asian and African markets. However, the article argues that there remains a significant gap between the declared potential of the corridor and its actual cargo base. This gap is shaped not only by infrastructure constraints, but also by administrative, legal, tariff, logistical, and trade-structural barriers.

The purpose of the study is to systematize the key barriers to the development of the INSTC on the basis of Russia’s trade cooperation with countries gravitating toward the corridor’s routes. The empirical analysis focuses on the dynamics and commodity structure of Russia’s trade in 2019–2024 with Azerbaijan, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The article shows that the growth of Russia’s trade with these partners is highly asymmetric. Russian exports have expanded much faster than imports, while a significant share of export growth is driven by raw materials, especially mineral fuels, oil, and petroleum products. These goods do not automatically generate stable demand for the corridor’s multimodal infrastructure, since large-scale energy exports continue to rely mainly on traditional maritime routes. The study identifies several groups of barriers limiting the corridor’s effectiveness. The most important hard infrastructure constraints include the unfinished Rasht–Astara railway section in Iran, limited capacity and ageing fleet on the Caspian route, insufficient port and rail infrastructure, and the shallowing of the Caspian Sea and the Volga–Caspian shipping canal. These are compounded by soft barriers: fragmented legal regulation, complex customs procedures, the absence of a coordinated through tariff, weak logistics management, lack of a single coordination center, and information gaps among business actors.

The article concludes that the INSTC cannot be developed only through isolated infrastructure projects. Its potential depends on comprehensive modernization of logistics governance, digital coordination of cargo flows, harmonization of tariff and customs procedures, development of return cargo, and broader diversification of Russia’s southern trade. Without these measures, growing trade with the Global South will not necessarily translate into sustainable cargo flows through the corridor.

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