No 4(49) (2016)
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CRITICAL STUDIES
7-15 1372
Abstract
Central Asian nations faced a challenge of state-building objectives after the collapse of the USSR. However, it was a complicated task, because those nations were parts of the Russian and, lately, the Soviet state. State-building objectives include the creation of new historical narrative. Central Asia is now experiencing the process that is called "national novel" in the Western European historiography. Central Asian national variants of historical narratives serve as a conceptual basis for the writing of school and university textbooks. The introduction of ideological constructs through the education system is carried out everywhere. However, it is important to note that inevitable ideological indoctrination should not undermine scientific essence of textbooks. Politics of nation formation and the preservation of its identity is implemented and fostered by states carefully as well as clumsy. There is no doubt that there is an inevitable and practical need for constructing "national novel" in the new states. But historical politics should not ignore some of the methodological and at the same time mental traps that exist in the field of studying the history of the peoples of Central Asia in the period of the Russian Empire.
16-25 1129
Abstract
Khorasanian thinkers believed that, the discovery of their origins and the "Other", is not a single whole act, but rather a procedural, almost stage-by-stage like capacity to understand the world. Evidence suggests that in order to survive (or just grow), one must move from their initial sphere of life/science to the next. Such mobility was influenced heavily by the tradition of constant crossing of boundaries and countries, formalizing commercial/scientific flexibility of the entire culture of the region. However, this potential remains untapped in the construction of the new history of nations. Therefore it is fair to ask: what is the reason for the lack of dialogue on decolonization of, both within the region (between researchers of different republics), between the Russian and Central Asian researchers, as well as between other regions, ie South-to-South (the Middle East, Latin America, India, etc.). Without doubt, every one of us has worthy of alibi. But it is important to understand that today's distancing from the topic in Central Asia; is not an ideological camouflage ala Soviet-style, but rather a preservation of the myth of Westphalia on the priority of national sovereignty. Finding one's way out of this maze created by the rhetoric of the nations and the logic of coloniality (as Kuidjano) is a very real issue. The first step may be to recognize that our very own knowledge base is colonial. Accordingly, the process must begin with ridding ourselves from this state, starting the process of de-coloniality. To initiate such an understanding, the author proposes to use - dahlez, philosophical concept, put forward with a view to the perception of many values of plural-cycle culture of the region, as well as the values of the outside.
26-36 1635
Abstract
The article discusses the features of the evolution on the silver screen so-called "white man's burden" or "civilizing mission" in the British colonies of the British Empire. The means of research were British feature films 1930-1980-ies. Using the author's methods of analysis of the ideological content of tapes and the context of their stories, it became clear that the idea of the "burden of the white" changed not only under the influence of the current socio-political situation in the metropolis and in the world, but also to a large extent transformed under the influence of highly artistic works of British directors each of which sought to bring to the story of the "civilizing mission" own view and vision to such a feature of the existence of the British Empire. The first feature films dedicated to the colonial subjects, by chance came the period of the ideological crisis of the empire in 1930, carried a powerful message of world film audience, the essence of which was the fact that Britain bears colonies only "good and justice" that without imperial province will remain forever languish in "darkness and ignorance." These films have reconciled a few British viewers with the idea of the need to preserve the empire. After the collapse of the colonial system there are films that criticize the cultural expansion of Europeans in the countries of Asia and Africa. The emphasis in these films was placed on the British arrogance and cruelty to the autochthonous peoples. The apogee evolution "burden of the white" reached in 1980, when Britain itself was to form multicultural society. The films of the decade have been devoted to the complete discrediting of the "civilizing mission" and recognize their mistakes in the relationship with the population of the colonies.
37-48 1496
Abstract
The article deals with the problems of democratization as a neocolonial practice. The author argues that the spread of democracy is similar in many respects to colonialism and civilizing mission as universal and even messianic phenomena. He notes that both of these phenomena, despite the similarity of their origin, have different "gender basis" (colonialism has characteristics of masculinity and civilizing mission - of femininity). The author reviewed the history of transforming the concepts of "colonialism" and "civilizing mission". Results parallels between the two phenomena are analyzed as a specific intellectual and public discourse in a particular era influenced the formation of both phenomena. Examples of national civilizing projects, their intellectual potential and influence on contemporary world politics are also considered. The echoes of colonialism and civilizing mission are visible in US and the EU doctrines of democracy promotion. Examining the evolution of approaches to democratization, the author finds the differences in strategic culture of the United States and the European Union: if the American establishment have a propensity to masculine practice of democracy promotion ("democratic enlargement", the project "Greater Middle East", etc.), and European leadership prefers feminine practices. In terms of the post-colonial feminism, this approach does not give these actors any special benefits, as it offers the ineffective governing strategy of the local population, not taking into account, and often denying the specific cultural environment of democracy promotion, paying more attention to institutional characteristics (lack of certain civil rights and freedoms, lack of transparency in the work of public authorities, etc.). The author notes that the current strategy of democracy promotion, though being more complex, creates the effect of "double discrimination", when both the local people and local women (imposing image of "a free and independent Western woman") feel that they are "colonized". Based on an analysis of the current state of democratization, the author proposes four possible scenarios for promoting democracy in the world.
HISTORY
49-57 2838
Abstract
Grand uprising led by Pugachev seized a vast area from the middle reaches of the Volga, the Urals and the Kazakh steppes. Thousands of people from different classes and nationalities joined rebellious Ural Cossacks in 1773. From the beginning, the uprising was of antimonarchic, not noble character, although its leader, and posed as a resurrected Emperor Peter III. During two years since 1773 the rebels were holding at bay the entire Russian Empire, becoming a real threat to the power of Catherine II. Pugachev's Rebellion is a subject of numerous works of Russian historians, writers, articles, research journalists and ethnographers. But perhaps the most famous "History of Pugachev" is written by a classic of Russian literature Alexander Pushkin. His work became one of the first (if not the first) serious historical studies on Pugachev's Rebellion. The historical science of XIX century, especially its first half, doesn't know many writings on the uprising. The fact that historians did not dare to write about Pugachev and the events that took place in 1773-1775 years, as Catherine II prohibited even mention the uprising. The decree of the senate ordered even rename the place, where the described events took place, for example, the Yaik river and Yaitsk town in order "to bring all that has happened to eternal oblivion." The famous historian S.M. Solovyov did not have advance to write about Pugachev. Death interrupted his work when his 29 volume ws in process, which he planned to complete with the execution of the leader of the uprising. Russian historian V.O. Klyuchevskii did not write many pages devoted to Pugachev as well. The author of this article visited the places, where the events took place, and repeated the journey of A.S. Pushkin, who visited the region in 60years after Pugachev's Rebellion. By talking with the locals, visiting ancient towns and villages, I sought to find out what has now preserved since ancient times, whether it is possible today to see evidence of the uprising or the famous trip of A.S. Pushkin.
58-68 904
Abstract
The UK European Union membership referendum 2016 and its results actualized the study of the British initiatives in the sphere of integration before the entry into the European Economic Community in 1973. The article is devoted to the little-known in Russian historiography "Grand Design"of H. Macmillan, nominated in the wake of the failure of the Suez operation against Egypt in 1956. Plan with such bright and eye-catching name suggested the creation of a broad integration group in Europe as alternative with Britain as a leader to the preparing for the establishment of projects of the European Economic Community and the European Atomic energy community. The project was designed to restore the prestige of the Conservative Party and to strengthen the shaky position of Britain in NATO and European affairs after Suez Crisis. At the same time the emergence of the plan reflected the desire of the Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan to weaken the struggle inside political establishment between supporters and opponents of the country's full-fledged participation in the European integration and take the lead in the integration movement from France. Analysis of the content of the project and attempts to implement it within the framework of a Free Trade Area (FTA) reveals the essence of the "special position" of the UK towards supranational integration and the British vision of the future of European integration. Modern United Kingdom appeared in the new European realities after the Referendum on the country’s membership in the European Union and returns to the starting point on the path of supranational integration and to the search for its place in Europe. In these circumstances, the ideas expressed by British politicians more than half a century ago, may again prove to be demanded and relevant.
69-78 2464
Abstract
The article discusses problems and contradictions associated with the attempt of the Labour Party under the leadership of Tony Blair to start a 'new era' in international relations by putting the 'ethical dimension' into the heart of their foreign policy. Indeed, having come to power and possessing great credibility among the British society, New Labour undertook a number of actions, which marked the formal break with the practices of the previous governments. Thus, they shifted the focus from the foreign trade interests to human rights considerations on the international arena, introduced innovations in the field of international aid and development of poor countries, declared the priority of so-called 'advanced' national interests. These solutions, however, have led to some ambiguous results. The author argues that, on the one hand, the Labour Party 'new' foreign policy was a tribute to the historical tradition and continuity and on the other - the spirit of the times, as other Western countries leaders claimed similar statements, and that, in fact, it contributed to the moral authority of the government in the eyes of the British society. The article contains examples proving how ambiguity and contradictoriness of certain decisions have been the conscious choice made by politicians, when declared altruistic goals actually proved to protect interests of certain business structures and direct opposite of the stated ethical principles. It is suggested that the divergence between word and deed had been initially present in the New Labour international doctrine and that the 'ethical foreign policy' can be considered as one of the tools of Realpolitik. The author concentrates on such aspects of the New Labour foreign policy as development, aid, debt relief, and arms trade, rather than on Blair’s just wars’ that are widely discussed in the Russian language historical literature and press.
79-87 9929
Abstract
The article focuses on the research of the consequences of the US nuclear bombings of Japanese cities in August 6th and 9th 1945. Military, political and psychological aspects, that were crucial for American military planning at the latest stage of the Second World War are taken into consideration. Also the problems of the new reality in the global policy of that period, which made it possible to demonstrate the military power in such a destructive way, are investigated. The author offers some logical alternatives to the real circumstances of the 6thAugust 1945, including both implementing and non-implementing of the nuclear weapons. The author also offers some new conception of the bipolarity considering the «A-bomb factor» in the international relations, which was critical since August 1945 till August 1949. The very fact of the using the most destructive and powerful weapon, developed after the Germans' capitulation but before the capitulation of Japan, corresponds with the political concept, offered by K. Clausevitz in early 19th century. The approach to the problem, advocated by the German military theorist was in details researched in the article. Using some historical and political methodology, the author criticizes the realization of this concept in August 1945th and offers some alternatives in the historical retrospective. Acknowledging, on the whole, the necessity of demonstration of the newest weapon by the United States in global political aspect, the author reveals a number of targets, which seem more optimal for this goal. Bombing of peaceful cities, which caused inadmissible civil losses, is characterized by the author as military crime.
WORLD POLITICS
88-98 1621
Abstract
The author analyzes the evolution of human rights and fundamental freedoms in domestic political life of individual states and in international relations as well over the latest two centuries. The article traces the role of struggle for liberal political human rights and civilian freedoms in the dismantling of the feudal-absolutist regimes as well as the challenges of radical left-wing (communist) and far right-wing (national-socialistic) threats to be met by the supporters of liberal political rights and civil freedoms in the interwar period. The list of human rights and fundamental freedoms had constantly been updating in the postwar period, including by the efforts of the UNO and other international organizations, and fixing in different international documents. The author emphasizes the import role of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) in transforming the issues of human rights and fundamental freedoms into the essential element of public diplomacy of contemporary states. He traces the process of the increasing utilization of liberal political rights and civilian freedoms, which are usually the effective tools for domestic democratic transformation, within the framework of diplomatic practice of European and North-American states, aimed at ensuring their political and economic interests on the world stage. In this regard the author addresses the attempts of Western countries to legalize "humanitarian"interventions in circumvention of the UN Security Council. The article emphasizes the necessity to replenish the understanding of universal human rights and freedoms by the values, developed both by the international community within the framework of implementing the Millennium Development Goals and by various countries and peoples, which in sum constitute the modern international civilizational baggage.
99-116 1206
Abstract
The article analyzes main aspects of V. Orban's policy of strengthening Hungarian economic sovereignty. The Hungarian leadership had to find out balanced and reasonable approach to tackle the world economic crisis. Hungarian ballot package included reform of economic regulation on a state's level, taking moderate protectionist measures and foreign trade diversification. V. Orban's government succeeded in constitutional reform that allowed to consolidate power to deliver coherent economic policy and to harmonize separation of powers with that goal to be reached. Moreover, transferring of economic regulation to constitutional level lead to stabilization of monetary sphere. V. Orban's government enhanced state sector of economy in vulnerable areas, rose taxation on large business and shrank loans' burden of citizens in order to maintain positive economic growth. This measures ensured potential to advance further inside demand rates and to galvanize market capacity. Finally, V. Orban announced "openness to the East" policy aimed at diversifying foreign trade of Hungary. The main focus of the policy was trade with China and Russia. However, supranational authorities of European Union objected this policy goals on the grounds of economic and political consideration. But Hungarian leadership advocated its policy in a very tough way, which is a good example of self-reliance and pragmatism for the future of Europe.
117-130 2864
Abstract
Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian Prime Minister, is about to turn 80 this September. He has dominated Italian politics since 1994 and is now Italy's longest-serving PM since Mussolini. He has survived countless forecasts of his imminent departure. Political researchers argue that despite his personal success, he has been a disaster as a national leader. Nevertheless, to call Berlusconi a failure would be absurd, particularly in terms of his political presence. Having provided the country with four governments that lasted for a total of almost ten years, Berlusconi left a profound mark on Italian political history and even defined the era of Berlusconism. This article is based on the assumption that there is considerable political substance to Berlusconism, the substance of Berlusconi's public discourse. In 1994 he launched "Forza, Italia", a political party that within the span of a couple of months would become one of the biggest in Italy. From the outset, the party has evoked both praise and criticism amongst political communications scholars. Most of the discussion was centered on party's antiestablishment rhetoric, its lack of traditional organization, consistent political agenda and controversial nature of the main leader. Interestingly, the celebratory interpretations surrounding the Berlusconi phenomenon have focused on the leaders' ability to create a mass support base primarily through the use of TV; all of this whilst bypassing traditional institutions. This article is about the communicational strategy Berlusconi employed and why it was successful. Berlusconism is a true political phenomenon, which deserves to be analyzed carefully.
131-136 1079
Abstract
Nowadays the Gaza Strip radical movement HAMAS is the most dangerous opponent for the State of Israel in the Palestinian arena. In recent years most attention of the world community has been focused on the events in the Gaza Strip. This attention is caused by the dynamics of standoff and the scale of events occurred. During the period after authority setting in the Palestinian enclave by HAMAS movement Israel carried out a series of large-scale military operations. These were «Cast Lead», «Pillar of Defense» and «Protective Edge». However for better understanding of dynamics of the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians it is necessary to pay equal attention to confrontation both in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. In the article the authors study the events of June 2014 that were a part of the permanent standoff in the West Bank. In June 2014 after abduction of the three teenagers by radicals Israel carried out the operation «Brother's Keeper» which preceded the large-scale operation «Protective Edge». The actions of Israelis aimed at weakening the infrastructure of HAMAS. During the operation in the West Bank Israel used considerable forces. Israelis caused a painful blow to HAMAS. The results of the operation «Brother's Keeper» suggested that the radicals of the West Bank may get developed underground infrastructure and developed infrastructure for production of rockets. The events of summer 2014 in zone of the Palestinian- Israeli conflict showed that escalation may spread from one part of the Palestinian land to another.
137-147 1229
Abstract
Relations between Berlin and Tel Aviv are unique. They occupy a special place in the foreign relations of Germany because of the "historic responsibility" o f the Germans for the Holocaust - the genocide of 6 million Jews during the time of National Socialism. The Germans certainly learned a lesson from its past. For 70 years they have been demonstrating to the entire world its good intentions, and did everything possible in order to atone for the suffering of Jews. Today, among the Germans one can observe some fatigue of the theme. There is an increasing desire to leave the topic in the past and to develop relations with Israel, which is not based on the need to make concessions because of the fear of being convicted of a tragic chapter in the history. The same cannot be said about the Jews, who do not forget to remind Berlin about its "special historical responsibility." We can assume that in the short and medium term, the Holocaust will determine the development of relations between Berlin and Tel Aviv.
148-164 1282
Abstract
The authors study the sociological grounds of Georgia's foreign policy based on the long-term researches conducted by American and Georgian NGOs, yet applying a critical approach to the provided data and figures. Despite the aggressive rhetoric of Georgian politicians towards Russia and apparent social consensus as regards EU and NATO integration, the article concludes that Russia has not completely "lost" Georgia. The results of the sociological surveys show that up to one third of the population of Georgia are ready to consider Russia as main partner of their country, and this figure depends to a certain extent on the Georgian authorities' policy. In addition, the potential of the Eurasian integration of Georgia is not equal to zero, and it is supported by around one fifth of the population. In the authors' view, Georgia may appreciate help with solving its domestic economic problems far more than being called "a beacon of democracy" or "a truly European state". Although according to the results of the most surveys Russia takes the first place in the list of the threats to Georgia, exceeding even the figures for the banned "Islamic State", around one third of the population of Georgia consistently consider Russian threat exaggerated. Together with those who do not regard Russia as a threat at all, these citizens of Georgia almost equal the number of people who believe that "Russia poses a threat to Georgia". Even if Russia does not change its position on the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and the West remains the goalpost of Georgia's foreign policy, the ties between the people, cultures, and economies of the two countries will not be severed. However, negligence towards the potential of developing the bilateral relations with no efforts taken on a mutual basis may significantly weaken the ties between Russia and Georgia by undermining the chances of strengthening them.
165-175 1105
Abstract
Following the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine has found itself in a heavy, almost insurmountable dependence on imported oil and gas resources. However, owing to the inherited soviet infrastructure and strategic location, it has become a key transit state, capable of controlling the main flows of hydrocarbons from Russia to Europe. Due to these circumstances, a deep, politically motivated and often irreconcilable competition in the triangle Ukraine-Russia and the West has emerged. In the post-Soviet era the Ukrainian authorities, irrespective of their political affiliations, have tried to diversify the Russian oil and gas supplies either by securing deliveries from other sources or by enhancing production within the country. Opposing any Russian initiative aimed at diminishing the transit status of Ukraine (for example, Nord Stream-1,2, South Stream, etc.), Kiev has struggled to keep Ukraine's gas transportation system under the national control. In addition to this, many western energy companies have got invitation from Ukraine to start exploration and production operations in the country. Such a behavior of the Ukrainian leadership, incompatible to a large extent with the Russia interests, was unanimously supported by Washington and Brussels in the 1990s and afterwards. Ukraine, initially involved in the multilateral energy cooperation with the Russian participation, decided to change its camp and join the pro-Western international energy institutions: GUAM, the Energy Charter Treaty and the Energy community. With the backing of Washington and Brussels, Kiev initiated two projects (the Eurasian Oil Transport Corridor, White Stream) designed to secure oil and gas supplies from the Caspian region to Europe bypassing Russia.
176-180 980
Abstract
Recently in mass media we can find the idea about a new Silk Road or the concept of "Silk Road Economic Belt" which has been formulated by the Chinese PresidentXi Jinping on September 7,2013, during his official visit to Kazakhstan. This project is not only the creation of a transport, power and trade corridor, and also the project which will promote development of tourism in the region and to strengthening of cultural exchanges of China with the countries of Central Asia, it also includes construction of a network of high-speed fiber-optical networks. The economic strip of the Silk Road will begin in China and pass across the Central and the Southern Asia, part of branches across the territory of the Russian Federation and to leave to Europe. This international investment project assumes creation of a continental transport way. For implementation of overland part of "A great Silk Road is a three railway corridors (northern, central have to be constructed and southern) They have form a basis for development of other means of transport, including automobile subsequently. Construction of these three railway corridors acts as the most important and necessary stage of implementation of the project. The government of China declares that creation of an economic belt of the Silk way is a revival of once prospering trade-transport and cultural corridor from Asia to Europe which will promote activization of a friendly exchange between the people of the different countries. Further all this has to connect trade and economic space of Europe and Asia in a whole that has to serve implementation of deeper economic cooperation, between the countries participating in him, to increase in a trade turnover and expansion of scientific and technical exchanges between them.
181-189 3895
Abstract
Established in accordance with the provisions of the National Security Act of 1947, the U.S. National Security Council is the main advisory body to the President of the United States tasked with helping the head of state to make the right decisions on matters related to national security. NSC system has been constantly evolving for some 70 years, and the NSC staff became a separate 'ministry' of a kind, allowing presidential administrations to focus ever-increasing control over American foreign policy in the White House. That is why serious attention is devoted to the National Security Council by American researches studying foreign policy decision-making. Here, a 'three-pronged consensus' exists: functioning and efficiency of the decision-making process is primarily a result of presidential actions; the President will make the best decision after becoming aware of the whole range of possible alternatives and assessing the consequences of each policy option; the position of the National Security Advisor, who is often one of the closest officials to the President and serves as a coordinator of the decision-making process, is considered to be one of the most notable in today's U.S. presidential administrations - and the most influential of those not being a subject to approval by the legislative branch of U.S. government. Any fundamental changes in the practice of U.S. foreign policy mechanism, as well as a decline of the White House influence on foreign policy are unlikely in the short term.
190-198 1745
Abstract
The article deals with the system of EU's functional units responsible for conducting crisis management within the framework of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP). It analyses their structure and particular features. The author puts forward three main factors, which affected the shape of this system. First, it is the exclusively intergovernmental nature of the CSDP and the veto-power of EU member states in this field. Second, the EU-US and the EU-NATO relations have also influenced the shape of the CSDP organizational structures. On the one hand, the Alliance has served as an example of a successful security organization for the European integration strategists. On the other, Washington has always sought to embed the European security and defense integration into NATO and to control it. Third, the CSDP institutional system embodies a specific approach towards crisis management, elaborated by the EU - a combination of both military and civil instruments of peacemaking (the so-called "civil-military synergy"). Thus, there are two chains of units within the CSDP, designed for planning and conducting military operations and civil missions respectively. Having analyzed political and operational units of the CSDP the author concludes that, overall, the created institutional system is well-suited to the ambitions of the EU in the field of crisis management. However, the EU member states cannot use the potential of this system to the full because of the political differences that divide them.
199-208 1087
Abstract
The paper gives an in-depth analysis of the evolution of the EU policy towards the South Caucasus within the framework of the Eastern Partnership. It is amply demonstrated that in 2009-2016 the goal was a Europeanization as a creation of a favorable external environment for the European Union through a sweeping judiciary, economic and political transformation in the region carried out according to the European standards. Among the key objectives of the European Union policy is the maintenance of energy security by means of creating an alternative transport corridor for fossil fuels. The study underscores that the implementation of the Eastern Partnership in 2009-2013 revealed significant discrepancies in the speed and degree of Europeanization in the South Caucasus countries due to their socio-economic peculiarities. Such uneven transformation reflects the long-standing search for an optimum way of cooperation with the European Union. This complex multi-aspect and long-term process constitutes an integral part of the effort to grasp new national and regional identities made by post-Soviet states. The paper thoroughly analyses the distinctive features of the new EU foreign policy strategy characterized by a differentiated approach to each country. Instead of the former irreciprocal statement of prerequisites for cooperation, such an approach paves the way for meaningful bilateral dialogue between the partners and furthers integration just to the extent they are ready for. Yet, it is shown that this strategy preserved the faults of the former EU regional policy towards the post-Soviet space. They include inconsistency, vague objectives, and emphasis on the geopolitical confrontation with Russia. However, in order to promote the stable development of the region, the EU needs to rethink its foreign policy strategy and come up with a modernized framework of cooperation that would take into account the interests of all concerned parties, including the Russian Federation.
209-217 1112
Abstract
The article is the form of scientific report on the results of three year long project on methodology of long term forecasting the development of the system of international relations. The methodology is based on the following assumptions: input information is accurate and complete; international relations constitute a system, scenarios for different levels of international relations development are hierarchically interdependent; the speed of development is different on various levels of international relations; various national capabilities affect the development; elites affect international relations; civil society affect international relations. Based on this assumption the author builds the most probable scenario of intercivilizational relations which is military coercive interaction. The role of soft power will increase its share in the toolkit of the confrontational politics. To win in this confrontation it is necessary to review the current practices of strategic forecasting and planning and to rebuild the entire military organization of the Russian army. The principal condition for the victory is development of national human capital, as well as the formation of the national ideology.
218-234 856
Abstract
The article studies prospective for transformation of the current global deterrence system in 21st century, paying special attention to the structures of treaties past 2021. After the mainstay arms control treaty (New START) expiration development of the new system of treaties and agreements seems inevitable, quite possibly, on multilateral basis. The hypothesis stressing possibility of multilateral deterrence system for global stability is quite popular nowadays. Studying the dynamics of nuclear arms cuts and monitoring progress on New START treaty, we can see numerous positive effects. However, the nuclear modernization programs currently in progress or planned for the near future should be taken into account for future agreements. This is when geospatialanalysis is important, demonstrating effectively which states are deterring each other and for which ones this is simply impossible because of the available weapons delivery range. This analysis is performed for three possible candidates for future multilateral treaties: USA, Russia and China, mentioning Great Britain and France as well. Going further into geospatial analysis, strategic ABM factor is accounted and the role of global ABM is estimated for future treaties. Numerical estimates of nuclear potentials of third countries - incomparable to the current numbers in possession of two main nuclear powers - performed specifically. Based on the analysis provided we can effectively deny the possibility of multilateral agreements for future deterrence scenarios. However, some steps for involving third countries into the global process of nuclear regulations can be outlined. This includes a number of bilateral agreements for arms control in certain regions, specifically developed to form a system of treaties aimed for global tensions reduction moving towards a safer world in the 21st century.
235-247 1446
Abstract
The article discusses the key trends shaping the international regime on information security. International cooperation in this area at the global level encounters contradictions of state interest. The main actors of the information security are the United States, Russia, China and the EU countries (Britain, France and Germany). The main contradiction is developing between the US on one side and Russia and China on the other. EU countries occupy the middle position, gravitating to that of US. The article proves that international cooperation on information security will reflect the overall logic of the development of international cooperation, which is characterized by a new model of cooperation, with the participation of state and non-state actors, known as multi-stakeholder partnerships and multi-level cooperation. The logic of the formation of an international regime on information security is closest to the logic of the formation of the international non-proliferation regime. It is in the interest of Russia to support the trend towards regionalization of information security regime. Russia can form a regional information security regime in the former Soviet Union on the basis of the CSTO and SCO and potentially on a wider Eurasian space. Such regional regime would give Russia an opportunity to shape the international regime and closely monitor emerging information security issues in the former Soviet Union, and remove the potential threat of "color revolutions".
248-261 719
Abstract
The article covers the concept of "capitaleness" and "geographical identity". Our research will make an attempt to analyze an institute of capitals at functional as well as symbolic levels. In that case capitals serve not only as a place to dispose the governmental bodies, but their functions include national representation to themselves and the environment. Capitals are the idealized image of nation and national history, a sort of nation in miniature. Interregional differentiation within a state through establishing and maintaining mental boundaries between center and periphery is the mechanism to detect the territories needing the support for preserving the compliance with national norms and, thereafter, maintaining stateness. Two major territorial bases of stateness are traditionally singled out: nation-building and threats to security or, in other words, mental boundaries marking of "Us" community and actualization of "Others". Contemporary political geography is turning to the study of the third mechanism - internal "Other". Two strategies are possible to prove that interregional differentiation is a mechanism of nation-building. Analysis of different discursive and institutional practices marginalizing regions would be logical. However such way leads us to the large number of cases differing from each other in the multitude of variables and, therefore, exclude generalization in the conclusions. Thereupon we consider it possible to address another strategy, such as the search for evidence that center is purposefully opposed to periphery and is given symbolic national and centrifugal functions as well as administrative ones. The existence of one dichotomic pole should confirm the existence of the opposite. There are three cases - of Staraya Ladoga, Myshkin and Kasimov - which interpret differently the peculiarities of geographical space. Besides, the authors give illustrative examples of the construction of the myth about "stolichnost" and describe the instruments of symbolic politics.
GLOBAL ECONOMY
262-273 1217
Abstract
Negative interest rates appeared as a consequence of economic problems that countries with market economy came across after the crises of2007-2008. The attempts of monetary authorities to stimulate economies with the help of quantitative easing didn't bring the desired result. That's why the central banks once again resorted to a traditional tool of their monetary policy of changing interest rates. But this time they launched an experiment, they used negative interest rates. The European Central Bank, the Swedish Riksbank, the Bank of Japan, and the National Bank of Hungary introduced negative rates in order to stimulate economic growth and fight the threat of deflation, the Danish National Bank and the Swiss National Bank tried to deter appreciation of their currencies. Negative rates of the central banks brought about negative yields of government and nongovernment securities in several countries. The problem acquires an aggravated form due to the fact that negative rates appeared in several European countries simultaneously at the moment when global financial markets were not in crises. Some questions arise concerning the negative rates, for example, how low can central banks bring down the rates in the future, what is their influence on the stock markets, what is the reaction of depositors to the introduction of negative deposit rates by commercial banks, must one consider a negative rate as a rate of interest or payment to store money of the depositor, in which circumstances negative rates can be justified to fight deflation. The last question plays an important role, because recent studies find that positive economic growth is possible during deflation. If central banks don't take this nuance into consideration, they can create economic imbalances by increasing liquidity. Negative rates are not as inoffensive as it may seem at first glance. Not far ago an investor, who tried to averse risk, was buying government securities. Their yields according to theory could not become lower than zero. By introducing negative rates, the central banks told in fact that the lower bound of the interest rate didn't exist any more. Thus, now investors find themselves in a situation of complete uncertainty, and risk becomes an absolute dominance. They can't averse it even in government securities. Such situation influences financial markets in a negative way. If we go up to a higher level of abstraction and imagine an economy as a live organism, which tries to rehabilitate itself, then the negative rates can be considered as a way through which the economy tries to solve the task of reducing liquidity. Studies show that so far the introduction of modestly negative rates have not affected the functioning of money markets much. In anticipation of the forthcoming cyclical crisis it is possible to give advice to the central banks to make one more step in the issue of the development of new tools of monetary regulation. Such new tools could be represented by futures contracts on interest rates securities.
274-285 1514
Abstract
Japan, the largest net exporter of investment plays one of key roles in the in-ternational capital flows and has a serious impact on the global trends in this important dimension of international economic relations. Vast amounts of for-eign direct investment (FDI) outflow are important for the Japanese national economy as well, since Japanese overseas production in some areas reaches 40% and is an important part of its industrial potential. However, FDI inflow remains low, indicating an unbalanced participation of Japan in the international capital flows. Japan in international capital flows presents a field for complex numerous research. This article concentrates on analysis of dynamics and geographical structure of capital flows, reveal the trends, and estimate the effect of Abenomics.
SCIENTIFIC LIFE
286-294 743
Abstract
23d December 2016 the Department of Philosophy of MGIMO-University conducted annual XXI Shishkin Readings in memory of famous Russian philosopher A. F. Shishkin, the founder of the Department of Philosophy in MGIMO. The participants of the event from MGIMO-University were the following: professor A.V. Shestopal (Doctor of Philosophy), professor T.V. Panfilova (Doctor of Philosophy), professor M.A. Muntyan (Doctor of Philosophy), M.V. Silanteva (Doctor of Philosophy), associate professor M.V. Harkevich (PhD), associate professor A.N. Samarin (PhD), associate professor S.N. Lutova (PhD), associate professor D.N. Belova (PhD), professor VS. Glagolev (Doctor of Philosophy). The invited guests of the University were the following: Chef Researcher of Institute of Philosophy professor K.M. Dolgov (Doctor of Philosophy), director of scientific-producing company "Didactic", president of "Consortium Educational Environment" A.S. Ignatenko-Lamsdorff, director of the Center for International Relations M. Halil. Also in the conference participate the postgraduate students from different departments: D.C. Gorshenev, U.A. Hailova, A.U. Belenko, etc.
BOOK REVIEWS
295-298 1788
Abstract
Book review: Strategic prognostication of international relations: the count. monograph / ed. A.I., Podberezkin, M.V. Aleksandrov; [A. Podberezkin I. et al.]; Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation the Center for Military-Political Studies. - M.: MGIMO-University, 2016. - 743 p.
ISSN 2071-8160 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)