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MGIMO Review of International Relations

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No 5(62) (2018)
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RESEARCH ARTICLES

7-22 1072
Abstract

The article proposes the framework of further analysis of regional political processes. The authors believe that the significant amount of activities is occurring on the regional level. Thus, the moderate aim of the article is to link different levels of analysis and to present measurable variable to explore regional political developments in this context. The basic assumption of the article is that there are more hierarchical relationships on the regional level than on the global one. Regional powers objective try to create security and stability in their regional areas which increases the overall stability. However, some regions are lacking conditions for durable hierarchy, which is a structural reason for instability and conflicts. The problem the latter regions face is their limited chance of creating durable structures of cooperation, because hierarchy implies some structural violence that helps to realize interests and understand policy limitations. The article presents comparative framework that assesses features of regional powers such as strength or weakness, absence of rivals or their presence. The framework also includes state’s policies that may disregard the regional context in order to seek more promising opportunities. The “hierarchy and interest”- based analysis demonstrates that some regions have strong spatial appearance while the others are only in search of their spatial identity. This allows elaborating on the dependent variables such as territorial disputes, cooperation of rivals, political regime performance. The authors conclude that the presented framework can be useful for further analysis and enriches potential for testing hypotheses of regional political behavior of state actors.

23-48 1331
Abstract

This article explores the antinomies of development of different Arab political systems, drawing on the theory of social order by D. North, J. Wallis and B. Weingast. The author analyses all Arab countries as "orders of limited access", mature or fragile. This approach enables the author to follow the rationale of political development in fragile and failed states, as well as the logic of how political relations form in quasi-states, without raising the question of statehood as such. However, the level of generalization inherent in the theory of social order impedes an analysis of the diverse political reality as we encounter in the Middle East. Therefore, the author (enhances the theoretical framework), identifying three models of political transformation in the Arab world: the Levant-Iraqi, North African and Gulf-Libyan models. Each of these models is organized in its own way, not only in socio-political terms, but also has been developing according to its own logic over the past several decades. In 2010 and 2011, all Arab states were faced with the same, well-known set of challenges and threats. And though responses to these differed case by case and were predetermined by the belonging of a particular system to a particular transformational model, the result was the same: the emergence of drivers of future change, applicable to the entire region. From the author's perspective, these drivers have included: first, a kind of «future phobia», which drives the political behavior of both masses and elites; and second, economic crisis, with which most governments of the region have struggled. At first glance, the political transformations occurring as a result of these drivers appear similar. Democratic procedures, electoral processes and the role of civil society appear to have strengthened and play an increasingly prominent role. The paradox is that, in practice, the above-described regional trends can entail very different social-political consequences, presaging modernization in some places, while driving the archaization of the state in others, depending on which model the respective state belongs to. At the same time, these processes of modernization and archaization stand in a complex relationship with the processes of strengthening / weakening of "orders of limited access": while, tactically, the majority of conscious actions taken by elites is aimed at strengthening "orders of limited access", in the long run, such actions can raise risks and weaken political systems.

49-70 1651
Abstract
The article considers the main directions of further financial integration of East Asian countries, developing deep and stable connections within the framework of global and regional economy. Currently, among the investment flows that lay ground for financial integration with other regions, the leading place is taken by funds from and to the countries of North America and Western Europe. At the same time, the growth in intraregional investment, especially in terms of assets, significantly exceeds growth from the group of developed countries, the share of participation of the latter in interregional relations is gradually decreasing. Through the development of regional integration at various levels of economic interaction, Asian countries are seeking ways to reduce vulnerability and "contagion" from the processes of financial globalization. While the trends in regional financial integration have certain advantages, they also involve some risks. On the one hand, the Asian region can benefit from greater financial diversification and reduce the concentration and dependence from western economies. On the other hand, this process can bring imported volatility from other countries of the region and reduce the regulatory counteraction from various types of shocks that arise in the economies of these countries and beyond. The intensity of further convergence of the financial markets and institutional arrangements of Asian countries will be largely determined by the scenarios of development of the world economy, as its slowdown and, consequently, decrease of activity in the global capital market clearly leads to strengthening of regional integration processes. The expansion of intraregional cross-border financial transactions requires a significant expansion of the regulatory framework for cooperation, the conclusion of two-and multilateral banking and investment agreements, as they directly determine the process of capital flows liberalization. As regional financial cooperation in Asia has not yet developed as in Western Europe and North America, it is important to pay attention to such essential elements as economic and financial supervision, normative harmonization of banking and securities market, strengthening of regional financial security system and maintenance of development of various segment of financial market, first of all bonds in local currency. In the process of work the basic methods of economic analysis were applied, namely basic system and statistical methods. The use of the system approach allowed to consider the movement of capital flows from an to Asia over a long period of time, the evolution of financial integration models. Calculations and comparisons, the construction of tables was carried out on the basis of statistical methods, which are applied for the study of currency and credit relations. The information base of the studies was based on reports and statistics of the World Bank (IBRD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Asian Development Bank, as well as analytical materials of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of RAS.
71-91 1430
Abstract
A nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula was primarily caused by security reasons. However, from the very beginning an economic component has been inextricable part of any settlement plan. Since the 1990s the DPRK has been offered economic benefits in return for an agreement to abandon its nuclear program. After the first nuclear test in 2006 the international community led by the USA has emphasized imposing economic restrictions on North Korea. Engagement and sanctions have become two key approaches to dealing with the DPRK. They have been applied simultaneously and separately, unilaterally and multilat¬erally. As a result of the severe economic sanctions imposed against the DPRK by the UN Se¬curity Council the country has been significantly restricted in its external economic relations. Nevertheless, unlike the case of Iran, measures of financial and economic pressure failed to make North Korea abandon its nuclear arsenal, with the escalated tensions between Pyongyang and Washington bringing the region close to war in 2017. In 2018 the situation is dynamically changing as a new stage in the nuclear settlement on the Korean peninsula has begun. The historic USA-DPRK summit held in Singapore on 12 June 2018 opened new opportunities for engaging North Korea. The article revises previous experience and approaches to dealing with the DPRK in the economic sphere with the aim of reducing tensions in the region. Based on the analysis of different strategies applied and positions of the key regional players the author looks at the prospects of using economic methods in the nuclear settlement on the Korean peninsula and also proposes practical measures for economic engagement of the DPRK.
92-113 1135
Abstract
The article deals with assistance aid provided by the international donors to Ukraine. Author analyzes Ukrainian statistics on the issue – the projects registered between January 2014 and February 2018 by two Ukrainian ministries – the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and the Ministry of Finance. Although incomplete, this data is considered assistance, which has reached Ukraine. The author names the overall volumes of international assistance to Ukraine, amounts offered in loans and grants and the major allocations of assistance. Proceeding from priority areas of aid, the author concludes on the donor’s motivations and their possible specific interests in Ukraine. Major Ukrainian donors – international financial organizations (IMF, IBRD, EIB, EBRD and KfW), as well as the European Union, the UN, Chernobyl Shelter Fund and donor states (the United States, Germany and Canada) have specific approaches towards assistance aid. While multilateral institutions tend to address the needs of Ukrainian economy by funding the reforms and infrastructure, donor states pay more attention to their long-term strategic and economic interests. They fund nuclear security and non-proliferation, support defense, law enforcement and border control agencies, encourage civil society and media development, consult agricultural sector and bilateral trade. States also ensure that national companies become contractors of their aid projects. Common motivation both for multilateral donors and states is to turn Ukraine into a western-like state with a transparent system of governance sensitive to foreign influence.
114-130 2573
Abstract
The social and humanitarian issues of world politics are playing an increasingly important role in the political development of the world. The article affirms that humanitarian problems can and should be considered together with the social ones, since in most cases, humanitarian and social processes accompany each other. The article sets the question whether the social and humanitarian spheres are under the process of transformation, and if so, how this process is going. The authors proceed from the assumption that the political organization of the world, which includes the Westphalian system, the system of interstate relations and the political systems of individual states, is transforming and the social and humanitarian spheres are under the influence of this process. The main results of the study are as follows. Firstly, social and humanitarian spheres are intensively developing due to the fact that in the modern world, people and human capital are becoming increasingly significant. Transnationalization within the framework of the Westphalian system leads to the involvement of huge masses of people in international relations. Thus network communications are being intensively formed. In turn, the disintegration of the bipolar system of interstate relations did not lead to the disappearance of the ideological factor, and the social and humanitarian issues became especially important in the interstate interaction. Secondly, in the modern world politics the social and humanitarian issues penetrate ever more intensively into other spheres: military-political and political-economic. In the military- political sphere the social and humanitarian aspects accompany almost all conflicts and they are used in two ways: on the one hand, to counter the enemy (for example in the so called "hybrid wars"), on the other - to reduce tensions and resolve conflicts. In the political and economic sphere, in the 21st century emerges the UN Global Compact, which forms the social responsibility of business on a global scale. In addition, both business and power structures organize various discussion platforms on political and economic issues. The social and humanitarian spheres also get their own development. At present, the sphere of higher education is more than others under the process of transformation. In the future, such social and humanitarian areas of world politics as health care, international tourism, etc also will go through changes. Russia has taken a course to build up its presence in the social and humanitarian spheres of world politics. In this connection on the basis of the analysis the authors give recommendations for Russia.
131-145 1929
Abstract

The history of an environment as an issue of the international politics pays remarkably little attention to the circumstances in which the environmental agenda develops and to its constitutive issues. The Stockholm Conference on the human environment is one of the important milestones that made the environment as an issue of international concern. However, its success would be impossible without the immense experience in addressing environmental issues gathered at the multilateral level. A review of the literature on the research topic shows that the term «environmental agenda» is not always used properly, there is a lack of empirical data to explain the «greening» of international relations. Indeed, given the fragmented nature of international environmental governance, specifically within the framework of the United Nations, it is difficult to trace the evolution of the environmental agenda from the first days of Organization to the present. For identification and definition of the content of the environmental agenda, the authors used the content analysis of the title of the resolutions of the UN General Assembly adopted in the period from 1946 to 2016. The research identified environmental issues of high priority: sovereignty over resources, environment, sustainable development, desertification, climate, natural disasters. The analysis made it possible to track their appearance on the agenda in chronological order. Also, we identified the issues underlying the formation of the environmental agenda of the General Assembly, namely international security issues related to nuclear weapons and economic development. In addition, we examined some voting patterns on environmental issues, the dynamics of changes in the attention of UN member states to key issues such as sustainable development, desertification, climate, sovereignty over natural resources.

BOOK REVIEWS

146-154 1348
Abstract

Book Review: Podberezkin A.I. Status and long-term military and political prospects for Russia’s
development in the 21st century. Moscow: International Relations, 2018. 1596 p.

155-161 920
Abstract

Review of the book by Kirk R. The Roots of American Order. Publishing House “MGIMO-University” M., 2017 655 p. (In Russian).

162-164 881
Abstract

Review of the book by Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Igor Melikhov. Diplomatic Symphony. MGIMO-University, 2017. 687 p.

165-173 955
Abstract

Review of the textbook by A.N. Zakharov. International Competitive Bidding: studies. 3rd ed. Moscow: MGIMO - University, 2018. - 248, [1] p.

174-183 1181
Abstract

Book Review. Zoidov, K., Medkov, A., Zoidov, Z. “Public-Private Partnership – The Basis of Innovative Development and Security in The Transit Economy” / Foreword and ed. by V. Tsvetkov. Moscow: Economic Education Publishing House, 2017, 528 p. (In Russian)
The book under review is a collective monograph of authors representing Market Economy Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences. The monograph applies quantitative methods of analysis to capture current problems and prospects of building transit economy in Russia and Central Asian states on the public-private partnership basis.



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ISSN 2071-8160 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)