Foreign Policy Preferences of Kazakhstan after 2022

The January 2022 protests in Kazakhstan drew global attention to the country's foreign policy orientations. This research investigates the focal states and international organizations prioritized by Kazakhstan during Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's presidency, spanning from March 20, 2019, when Tokayev assumed office, to December 31, 2022, marking the end of data collection. Employing content analysis and discourse analysis as primary methods, this study examines data from diverse sources, including the official website of Kazakhstan's President, his social media profiles, and relevant media outlets. The analysis encompasses mentions of countries, their leaders, and international organizations across three languages: Russian, Kazakh, and English.

Key findings include Tokayev's frequent references to Russia (223 mentions) and China (95 mentions), while the United Nations (UN) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) receive the highest number of mentions among international organizations (178 and 102, respectively). Remarkably, Tokayev predominantly communicates in Russian when addressing foreign policy matters.

In general, public discourse aligns closely with Kazakhstan's doctrinal discourse. However, notable discrepancies arise. Despite the Foreign Policy Concept's indication of Kazakhstan's intent to strengthen its strategic partnership with the United States, Tokayev's limited mentions of the United States (33 in total) suggest a distinct trend.

1. Idan A., Shaffer B. 2011. The Foreign Policies of Post-Soviet Landlocked States. Post-Soviet Affairs. 27(3). P. 241-268. DOI: 10.2747/1060-586X.27.3.241

2. Isaacs R. 2020. Russia–Kazakhstan Relations and the Tokayev–Nazarbayev Tandem. Russian analytical digest. No248. P. 2-5. DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000401980.

3. Kembayev Z. 2020. Development of China-Kazakhstan Cooperation. Problems of Post-Communism. 67(3). P. 204-216. DOI: 10.1080/10758216.2018.1545590.

4. Kulintsev Y.V., Mukambaev A.A., Rakhimov K.K., Zuenko I.Y. 2020. Sinophobia in the PostSoviet Space. Russia in Global Affairs. 18(3). Р. 128-151. DOI: 10.31278/1810-6374-2020-18-3-128151

5. Kurmanova A., Sarsikeyeva G., Utegulova G. 2021. Political Linguistics: Public Speech of American and Kazakh Politicians. International Journal of Society. Culture & Language. 9(2). P. 212-221.

6. Rangsimaporn P. 2020. Kazakhstan and ASEAN: the Unexplored Vector in Kazakhstan’s Foreign Policy. Asian Affairs. 51(1). P. 126-145. DOI: 10.1080/03068374.2019.1706342

7. Vanderhill R., Joireman S.F., Tulepbayeva R. 2020. Between the Bear and the Dragon: Multivectorism in Kazakhstan as a Model Strategy for Secondary Powers. International Affairs. 96(4). P. 975-993. DOI: 10.1093/ia/iiaa061

8. Avatkov V.A., Sbitneva A.I. 2022. Transformaciya antiterroristicheskoj politiki Turcii v period pravleniya Partii spravedlivosti i razvitiya [Transformation of Turkey's Anti-Terrorism Policy under the AKP]. MGIMO Review of International Relations. 15(3). P. 143–174. DOI: 10.24833/20718160-2022-3-84-143-174. (In Russian).

9. Borishpolec K.P. 2010. Metody politicheskih issledovanij [Methods of Political Research]. Moscow: Aspekt press. P. 7–31. (In Russian).

10. Degterev D.A., Vasilyuk I.P., Baum V.V. 2018. Parametry mnogovektornosti vneshnej politiki stran SNG: prikladnoj analiz [Parameters of Multi-Vector Foreign Policy of the CIS Countries: Applied Analysis]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. (62)1. С. 63-75. DOI: 10.20542/0131-2227-2018-62-1-63-75. (In Russian).

11. Drozdov I.A., Popov D.D., Rakhman Khashimi M.M., Fedorov A.A. and Sharagina A.D. 2022. Kazahstan v novyh ekonomicheskih realiyah: prognozy dlya respublikanskoj mul'tivektornoj politiki posle nachala rossijskoj special'noj voennoj operacii na Ukraine [Kazakhstan in the New Economic Reality: Prospects for the Republic's Multi-Vector Policy after the Start of Russia's Special Military Operation in Ukraine]. Mezhdunarodnyj nauchno-issledovatelskij zhurnal. 11(125). P. 1-7. DOI: 10.23670/IRJ.2022.125.69. (In Russian).

12. Zhasekenova G.Zh. 2014. Osobennosti mnogovektornoj politiki Respubliki Kazahstan: problemy i perspektivy [Features of the Multi-Vector Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Problems and Prospects.]. Aktual'nye problemy gumanitarnyh i estestvennyh nauk. No3-2. P. 370-373. (In Russian).

13. Zyubina I.A., Matveeva G.G. 2017. Predvybornyj politicheskij diskurs D. Trampa i H. Klinton (pragmalingvisticheskij aspekt) [The Pre-Election Political Discourse of D. Trump and H. Clinton (Pragmalinguistic Aspect)]. 25 let vneshnej politike Rossii: sb. materialov H Konventa RAMI (Moskva, 8-9 dekabrya 2016 g.).: v 5 t. T. 5. P. 171. (In Russian).

14. Ionova E.P. 2020. Kazahstan v period tranzita vlasti [Kazakhstan during the Transit of Power]. Rossiya i novye gosudarstva Evrazii. 1(46). P. 82-97. DOI: 10.20542/2073-4786-2020-1-82-97 (In Russian).

15. Kushkumbaev S., Auelbaev B. 2021. Czentral`noaziatskij vektor vneshnej politiki Kazakhstana [Central Asian Vector of Kazakhstan's Foreign Policy: Achievements, Challenges, Prospects]. Kazakhstan Journal of Foreign Affairs. 1(2). P. 81-94. (In Russian).

16. Pojta Y. 2020. Krizis evrazijskih mezhdunarodnyh organizacij: prichiny i posledstviya vzaimosvyazannosti [The Crisis of Eurasian International Organizations: Causes and Consequences. Eurasian Network of Regional Initiatives and Organizations: Elements of Interconnectedness]. Evrazijskaya set' regional'nyh iniciativ i organizacij: elementy P. 19-24.

17. Laumulin M., Shaken M. 2008. Kazakhstanosko-rossijskie otnosheniya [Kazakhstan-Russia relations]. Czentral`naya Aziya i Kavkaz. No1. P. 130-144. (In Russian).

18. Sejdumanov A.S. 2022. Osobennosti kazakhstanskoj modeli demokraticheskogo tranzita: kontseptualno-metodologicheskij analiz [Features of Kazakhstan’s Democratic Tranzit Model: Conceptual and Methodological Analysis]. Problemy postsovetskogo prostranstva. 9(4). P. 423-436. DOI: 10.24975/2313-8920-2022-9-4-423-436. (In Russian).

19. Smagulov K.E. 2012. Kontent-analiz poslanij Prezidenta Respubliki Kazakhstan [Content Analysis of the Republic of Kazakhstan President’s Addresses]. Socziologicheskie issledovaniya. No6. P. 54-61. (In Russian).

20. Sultanov B. 2020. Kazakhstano-rossijskie otnosheniya vo vneshnej politike Prezidenta K.-Zh. Tokaeva [Kazakh-Russian Relations in the Foreign Policy of the President K.-Zh. Tokaev]. Rossiya i novy`e gosudarstva Evrazii. 2(47). P. 58-68. (In Russian).

21. Tleuberdi M. 2021. Vstupitel`noe slovo k izdaniyu [Introduction to the Publication]. Kazakhstan Journal of Foreign Affairs. 1(2). P. 5-9. (In Russian).

22. Shaukenova Z. 2021. Vstupitel`noe slovo k izdaniyu [Introduction to the Publication]. Kazakhstan Journal of Foreign Affairs. 1(2). P. 10-12. (In Russian).

23. Shubenkova A.Yu. 2014. Programmno-strategicheskie dokumenty v gosudarstvennoj politike RF: institucional'nyj analiz: dis. kand. polit. Nauk [Program and Strategic Documents in the State Policy of the Russian Federation: Institutional Analysis: dis. cand. polit. sciences]. Moscow. 201 p. (In Russian).