Geography of World Coal Market: Positions of Exporting and Importing Countries

Abstract

The global energy market is undergoing profound restructuring as many countries adopt policies to phase out fossil fuels and reorganize supply chains. Nevertheless, demand for coal remains robust and continues to grow, with consumption increasingly concentrated in Asia. This regional shift has reshaped the geographical structure of global coal trade. The central hypothesis of this article is that major exporters and importers exhibit varying degrees of geographical concentration and diversification in their trade flows, and that these dynamics change over time.
The study examines long-term trends in the coal trade between 2004 and 2023 using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (0–1) to quantify geographical concentration. The analysis first situates coal within global fuel markets, then focuses on thermal coal as the most relevant segment for international trade. Results show that both exports and imports became more concentrated during the study period, reaching unprecedented levels in 2023. Export concentration consistently exceeded import concentration, with the gap doubling over time, indicating stronger bargaining power for suppliers. At the same time, most leading players reduced the concentration of their trade flows, reflecting diversification. Notable exceptions include Indonesia, which rose to the top exporter by volume while increasing its concentration, and Japan, which became more dependent on Australia and Indonesia. Russia maintained a relatively low and stable export concentration, while China’s shift from a leading exporter to a net importer after 2007 reshaped the global market and created new opportunities for other suppliers. The findings also highlight China’s significant role in shaping import concentration across all fuel markets in 2020.