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MGIMO Review of International Relations

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Vol 16, No 3 (2023)
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RESEARCH ARTICLES. International Politics of Sustainable Development

7-55 996
Abstract

The article explores the challenges associated with the adaptation of energy policies in the Caspian region to the principles of sustainable development. In the contemporary context, the oil and gas resources of Caspian countries play a vital role in national economic development and ensuring energy security for key importing nations amidst the global reshuffling of energy flows. The author analyzes the transformative changes brought about by the energy transition within the structure of the global fuel and energy complex.

The study contributes to the field by proposing an integrated approach to promoting energy sustainability in energy-exporting countries. This approach entails the adaptation of the oil and gas sector to decarbonization processes, while simultaneously embracing the development of carbon-free energy sources within a dynamically evolving geopolitical landscape. The research endeavor seeks to determine the main directions for transforming the energy policies of oil and gas producing countries in the Caspian region in response to imperatives of sustainable development.

At present, the most relevant aspects of energy policy in the Caspian countries involve the further development of oil and gas projects, strict adherence to environmental standards and regulations, ensuring energy efficiency across the entire production chain, and the implementation of "operational decarbonization" measures and carbon capture and storage technologies to reduce the carbon footprint of the fuel and energy complex. Additionally, to mitigate climate risks in the Caspian region, strategic energy policy priorities should encompass resource diversification towards the advancement of carbon-free generation based on renewable energy sources.

The study assesses the potential of the Caspian countries not only in implementing "operational decarbonization" measures but also in developing renewable and low-carbon energy sources. Furthermore, it examines the prospects for realizing ambitious "green" projects in the region.

56-80 1140
Abstract

The increasing importance of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) assessments in advancing the international sustainable development agenda necessitates the disclosure of ESG reporting information by public companies. Such disclosure plays a crucial role in facilitating effective global business communication with stakeholders and enhancing the credibility of ESG transparency measurements. The primary objective of this study is to develop and validate a robust model for a business transparency index. By leveraging mathematical tools, this model quantitatively measures the level of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) transparency, taking into account the requirements of stakeholders and evaluating a public company's ability to disclose comprehensive information.

The research hypothesis posits that assessing ESG transparency in public company reporting based solely on the "quantity" of estimated values, while neglecting the critical factors of "quality" and "reliability," undermines the accuracy and reliability of the results. By utilizing existing mathematical tools, a business value management model is constructed, incorporating a balanced system of "quantity," "quality," and "reliability" factors present in the ESG information disclosed in public company reports.

The research methodology adopts a comprehensive approach, combining logical and structural analysis, mathematical modeling, and content analysis methods. A thorough examination of the regulatory framework, international and Russian practices, and scientific research in ESG disclosure reveals the emergence of authoritative professional standards and frameworks between 2000 and 2023. These standards and frameworks play a pivotal role in shaping the disclosure of financial and non-financial information related to sustainable development in corporate reporting. However, a significant gap exists in established practices for determining ESG transparency levels. Current "transparency indices" fall short in incorporating these factors, leading to methodological incomparability and gaps in assessing the "quality" and "reliability" of estimated values.

To address this gap, the authors propose a novel mathematical model for the ESG transparency index in corporate reporting. This model effectively integrates the factors of "quantity," "quality," and "reliability" within the disclosed information of public companies. Through a comparative analysis of disclosure and verification practices across various types of activities within Russian public joint-stock companies (PJSCs), the established model enables the creation of an industry rating gradation. This rating gradation assists in determining the level of information disclosure about public companies' activities, fulfilling societal (state) requirements and optimizing business objectives.

RESEARCH ARTICLES. Diplomatic History and Theory

81-108 599
Abstract

The article examines the Soviet responses to the Lausanne Process, which took place from May to November 1923. The process involved the trial of Russian émigrés Moritz Conradi and Arkadii Polunin, who were accused of murdering Vatslav Vatslavovich Vorovskii, the Soviet representative in Italy and head of the delegation to the Lausanne Conference, on May 10, 1923. The acquittal of Conradi and Polunin by a Swiss jury on November 16, 1923, under the verdict of "not guilty," as they were seen as avenging victims of Soviet repression, had a significant impact on the Russian emigration. While the historiography increasingly recognizes the role of various Russian émigrés in turning the trial into a denunciation of Bolshevism, little is known about the Soviet government's response to Vorovskii's killing and the efforts of the People's Commissariat of Foreign Affairs (NKID) to participate in the legal proceedings. By analyzing unpublished letters written by Soviet government officials found in the Archive of Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation and considering the international context of 1923, this study aligns with the historiographic trend that emphasizes collective leadership and institutional autonomy in Soviet foreign policy decisions following Lenin's increasing isolation in late 1922. The research demonstrates that when the Swiss government prevented the Soviet counterpart from participating as a legal party in the process, Moscow resorted to non-traditional foreign projections, which encompassed actions beyond formal diplomacy, and even involved non-communist actors to present the USSR in a positive and "objective" light at Lausanne. However, the bureaucratic complexities of the Soviet state hindered success in court. Thus, the handling of the Lausanne Process by the prosecution serves as an illustrative example of how post-Civil War Soviet institutions operated in relation to one another, characterized by intricate dynamics and an entrenched bureaucracy, far from the alleged "totalitarian" tendencies.

109-137 652
Abstract

This article examines the efforts of Nicolas Sarkozy, the President of the European Union (EU) at the time, in facilitating negotiations between Moscow and Tbilisi during the Georgia conflict in August-September 2008. While Sarkozy's primary objective was to end the bloodshed promptly, his strategic goals also encompassed preventing Georgia from falling back into Russia's sphere of influence and demonstrating the EU's capacity to independently resolve crises in the post-Soviet region.

Sarkozy successfully persuaded Moscow and Tbilisi to accept his mediation, known as the "good offices," to normalize the situation in South Ossetia. Additionally, he garnered support from the United States and the EU, positioning himself as a representative of the entire "collective West" in dialogue with Russia. Confronted with the parties' entrenched positions, the French President occasionally resorted to altering the content of his proposed "six-point" peace plan without prior agreement, ultimately impacting the quality of the resulting agreements. These differing interpretations continue to hinder the reconciliation efforts between Moscow and Tbilisi.

Through Sarkozy's mediation, a full-scale crisis in relations between Russia and the West was averted in August 2008. Significantly, Sarkozy was the first to officially articulate the threat of suspending all interaction between the "collective West" and Moscow if Russia employed military means to oppose EU and NATO expansion in the post-Soviet space. This article sheds light on Sarkozy's role in resolving the Georgia conflict while highlighting his strong stance against Russia's actions and aspirations in the region.

138-152 1049
Abstract

This article examines the diplomacy of small states, focusing on the case of TimorLeste. It analyzes the foreign policy strategies of small states, which encompass bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, engagement in international organizations and global governance, and the utilization of public diplomacy. These diplomatic tools enable small states to pursue their foreign policy objectives despite their limited resources, while also fostering cooperative relationships with larger powers. Diplomacy is regarded as a universal mechanism through which small states like Timor-Leste can integrate into the global international relations system.

Given the inherent limitations of small states in contesting with major and middle powers, they seek to enhance their international influence through collective actions, such as forming or joining coalitions in international organizations or intergovernmental forums. Additionally, small states employ public diplomacy to draw attention to their issues and needs, thereby reducing their reliance on greater powers and forging more advantageous collaborations with other states. Strategies such as imitation and balancing, participation in coalitions, promotion of international initiatives, provision of expertise, and adherence to the principles of international law are utilized to cultivate a positive image of small states as responsible actors in international relations and reliable partners.

The article concludes that Timor-Leste has been successful in maintaining bilateral and multilateral relations and actively participating in international organizations. However, it faces systemic challenges in effectively employing public diplomacy mechanisms. These challenges can be attributed to underdeveloped national public institutions and the enduring influence of greater powers, which affect not only Timor-Leste but also the wider region.

RESEARCH ARTICLES. Foreign Policy in a Changing World

153-179 625
Abstract

The Ukrainian crisis has reverberated throughout the troubled region of the Balkans in Southern Europe, exposing deep-seated cracks and fractures that have long characterized this geopolitical area. The crisis has not only highlighted divisions between local states but also between communities and ethno-religious groups. In many cases, these intraregional contradictions are exacerbated by external actors and their demands. This article examines the foreign policy priorities and orientations of Western Balkan capitals within the "five plus one" format states (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and the partially recognized "Republic of Kosovo") in light of the crisis in Ukraine, illustrating the interplay between regional dynamics and international crises.

Drawing on a wide range of sources, including official documents and opinion polls on foreign policy, this paper identifies regional discrepancies in the perception and assessment of the ongoing Ukrainian conflict. The study employs a historical-systemic approach and neorealism principles to discern potential directions for political institutions in the external context. The analysis reveals that a fragile "balance of threats" persists in the region, heavily influenced by the goals and interests of external actors such as the EU, NATO, the United States, Russia, and to a lesser extent, China and Turkey.

The military and political disengagement observed in 2022 mirrors the alignment of local players witnessed in 2014, but with a significant difference: the West now expects all participants in the "five plus one" format to fully adhere to their joint foreign policy, including implementing restrictive measures against the Russian Federation. This presents a challenging dilemma for Belgrade and Banja Luka, as they cannot overlook the widespread support for Russia's actions among the Serbian population. Any anti-Russian steps taken by local authorities may lead to serious internal political conflicts in both Serbia and Republika Srpska, with far-reaching implications for regional stability.

180-198 761
Abstract

This article aims to analyze the historical trajectory and current state of relations between India and the United States, spanning from India's independence in 1947 to the present, with a focus on identifying key stages of development, outcomes, and prospects. The establishment of a strategic partnership between the two countries has evolved through various phases, driven by economic, political, and ideological factors. However, certain limitations hinder the further deepening of this partnership, including disagreements on international political issues, India's pursuit of an independent foreign policy and reluctance to assume a subordinate role, inadequate US support on critical matters, and India's continued cooperation with Russia. Conversely, factors stimulating the growth of the strategic partnership encompass India's robust economic growth, its potential role as a counterbalance to China's expanding influence in Asia, shared interests in maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region, mutual concerns about regional security, recent progress in nuclear policy agreements, and expanding avenues for cooperation in diverse domains. The article further examines the unique characteristics of India's relationship with the United States, which shape the nature of their existing strategic partnership, such as the shifting focus from the political and strategic realm to economic interactions, India's commitment to maintaining "strategic autonomy" and non-alignment in its deepening cooperation, its ability to differentiate between political partnership and economic collaboration, and the preservation of a multi-vector foreign policy approach. Based on the analysis, the authors assert that while a strategic military and political alliance between the two powers is unlikely in the near future, their relationship will continue to evolve within the framework of a strategic partnership. The findings of this study will provide insights for policymakers in the South and Southeast Asia region to anticipate developments and adjust their policies accordingly.

RESEARCH ARTICLES. World Economy and International Trade

199-221 570
Abstract

This research article examines the development of trade in Crimea and Novorossiya following their incorporation into Russia. In the early 19th century, the grain trade in these regions had yet to gain momentum due to their limited development. However, ports in Feodosia, Taganrog, and Odessa regularly received ships from Constantinople and the Greek islands, while the port of Sevastopol primarily served military purposes. In 1821, under the decree of Alexander I, a port was established in Kerch to serve as an outpost at the entrance to the Sea of Azov and initiate trade relations with the mountain peoples along the Caucasian coast of the Black Sea. The Russian authorities faced challenges such as arms smuggling and the flourishing slave trade during this period. Establishing trade relations between Crimea and Circassia was intended to promote peaceful interactions with the inhabitants of the Caucasian coast. To facilitate this, the Stewardship of Trade with the Circassians and Abazians was established, regulating ship dispatch to the Caucasian coast and overseeing the operations of markets in Kerch and Bugaz. Relations with the highland communities proved difficult, as they frequently captured Russian ship crews and demanded ransoms. Even after the Treaty of Adrianople in 1829, when these territories became part of the Russian Empire, the local populations resisted submission to the new government, just as they had resisted the authority of the Turkish Sultan previously.

222-243 1065
Abstract

This article examines the foreign trade relations between the Russian Federation and the states of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC) in the 21st century. It considers the development of bilateral trade and economic cooperation with Middle Eastern states, particularly the Arabian monarchies, as an essential direction for enhancing Russia's integration into the global economic system in the context of increasing anti-Russian sanctions. The study's relevance lies in the Russian Federation's need to intensify foreign trade and investment cooperation with friendly states under the current circumstances. The research holds theoretical and practical significance for understanding the characteristics, challenges, and future development of bilateral trade relations with Gulf states.

The article aims to analyze the current state of mutual trade between the Russian Federation and GCC countries from 2000 to 2021 and identify the main factors influencing the dynamics and effectiveness of this trade. It establishes that trade and economic cooperation between both sides are founded on a stable objective basis, characterized by similarities and proximity in economic potential levels between the Russian Federation and the GCC countries as a collective business entity, considering individual country characteristics. The economic foundations and mutual benefits remain a priority for further cooperation. Trade volumes, both in goods and services, have shown steady growth, particularly in the past 5-6 years, although there are significant differentiations among countries. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) remains Russia's primary trading partner within the GCC. However, trade flows between Russia and the UAE, as well as other Gulf states, are imbalanced, with Russian exports to the Arabian monarchies significantly exceeding imports from the region. The commodity structure of bilateral trade also requires improvement, offering opportunities for both parties to enhance efficiency. The author suggests that future efforts should focus on developing trade in areas that contribute to economic diversification, the establishment of foundations for "green energy" and other promising sectors, and continuous enhancement of the regulatory framework for cooperation.

The analysis draws on data from the UNCTAD international database, ensuring the formulation of reliable and well-founded conclusions. The research utilizes various methods, including comparative analysis, statistical analysis, factor analysis, as well as historical, institutional, and causal approaches.

244-262 760
Abstract

The paper examines the factors that contribute to the outperformance of mutual funds in relation to the market, with a particular emphasis on the macroeconomic indicators as the key variables of interest. The paper begins by providing a comprehensive literature review on various factors that can impact the performance of mutual funds. The discussion encompasses a wide range of topics, including skill presence, diseconomies of scale, and other challenges associated with generating excess returns for investors.

In the second part of the paper, an empirical analysis is conducted using actively managed US mutual funds to establish a relationship between fund performance and macro-variables, specifically focusing on term and credit spreads. Furthermore, the study considers different returns on positive and negative changes in spreads. The sample consists of funds that primarily invest in various sectors within the United States, with the Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) serving as the benchmark. To assess the performance of funds with active strategies, panel data models are applied, with the excess return over the benchmark as the dependent variable. Different subperiods, including the financial crisis and the COVID-19 period, are examined. Notably, the impact of variables during the pandemic period differs significantly from other subperiods. The findings indicate that positive and negative changes in the spread between corporate bond yields have significant and positive effects across almost all periods, which has practical implications for potential investors. It suggests that active professional portfolio managers have been successful in uncertain periods. To control for external shocks and funds' cross-correlation, double-clustered standard errors are employed, and a series of robustness checks confirm the stability of the results.

263-297 701
Abstract

This paper addresses the effectiveness of a state-supported startup ecosystem in India in the context of economic and social development challenges. By conducting a detailed study of Indian entrepreneurs, investors, and relevant government documents pertaining to startup ecosystem development programs, as well as reports from research and analytical centers providing key industry indicators, the author concludes that the current startup ecosystem in India, despite several achievements, lacks effectiveness due to persistent challenges of administrative and regulatory nature, as well as socio-economic factors. The unprecedented growth witnessed in this sector in 2021 has highlighted existing problems, demonstrating the inability to establish a sustainable support mechanism for startups while disregarding the limitations that hinder the entrepreneurial and consumer potential of the Indian economy. The findings of this research showcase the immense potential of the Indian startup industry, which undoubtedly serves as a driving force for economic development in India, despite its vulnerability to certain elements. The experiences of India, including the challenges encountered in building a robust startup ecosystem, can provide valuable insights for other countries such as Russia.

BOOK REVIEWS

298-314 482
Abstract

Book review: Pechatnov V.O. 2022. History and politics. Moscow: Publishing house "Aspect Press". 542 p.



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ISSN 2071-8160 (Print)
ISSN 2541-9099 (Online)